{"id":115202,"date":"2024-08-28T17:05:25","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T15:05:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/?p=115202"},"modified":"2024-08-25T08:16:19","modified_gmt":"2024-08-25T06:16:19","slug":"25-05-96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/?p=115202","title":{"rendered":"Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The World Must Act"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The World Must Act<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h5>\n

Andrea Stricker<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024. Photo: West Asia News Agency via REUTERS<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will soon issue new reporting on Iran\u2019s nuclear program from a summer of inspections at Tehran\u2019s nuclear sites.<\/span><\/p>\n

The new data \u2014 and their implications \u2014 may cause a shock.<\/span><\/p>\n

In June, Tehran installed<\/a> numerous new uranium-enrichment centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment plant and its underground Fordow site, more than tripling the latter\u2019s capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60 percent purity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amassing 60 percent enriched material puts Iran days<\/a> from enriching that uranium to 90 percent, the level needed for atomic weapons. As a result, the Islamic Republic\u2019s so-called \u201cbreakout time\u201d \u2014 specifically, the amount of time the regime needs to produce weapons-grade uranium for multiple nuclear devices \u2014 may have dropped significantly.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IAEA\u2019s 35-member Board of Governors will meet next during the week of September 9 in Vienna, where Washington and its European allies will consider Tehran\u2019s nuclear advances, and assess Iran\u2019s non-compliance with previous Board demands that the regime cooperate on a multi-year IAEA investigation<\/a> into Tehran\u2019s nuclear weapons-work.<\/span><\/p>\n

To deter and penalize further Iranian advances, the West should pass an IAEA censure resolution against Tehran, and trigger the snapback of UN sanctions on the regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s breakout time began dropping precipitously after<\/a> the election of US President Joe Biden in 2020, as Tehran exploited his desire to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and remove sanctions. Notably, this expansion came after Iran\u2019s relative restraint<\/a> when President Donald Trump exited the nuclear accord in 2018 and implemented massive US sanctions that severely crippled<\/a> the Iranian economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

As of November 2020, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security, Iran needed<\/a> 3.5 months to make weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear device, and around 5.5 months to produce enough material for two.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden later said he wouldn\u2019t try to revive the joint nuclear deal, but stood by as Iranian breakout time dropped to terrifying levels.<\/span><\/p>\n

IAEA data for May 2024 indicated<\/a> the Islamic Republic could make enough fuel for one nuclear weapon in under 7 days, and enough for 13 weapons in four months. The regime would require an unknown number of additional months to build atomic devices and integrate the weapons-grade fuel, and the United States and Israel have reportedly observed Iranian scientists working on<\/a> such efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

At Fordow last June, Iran installed advanced-generation machines known as the IR-6, which churn out uranium at a fast clip. There, Iran was already enriching uranium to 60 percent purity in two clusters of centrifuges \u2014 known as cascades \u2014 each containing 174 IR-6 machines, and informed the IAEA it was adding eight more cascades.<\/span><\/p>\n

Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright crunched the numbers at Fordow, and found<\/a> \u2014 using that facility alone \u2014 that Tehran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons in two months, adding to Iran\u2019s overall breakout capability and rendering the plant an agile pathway for the Islamic Republic to quickly produce fuel for nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unless Iran has slowed centrifuge installation, Tehran could have nearly 1,400 IR-6 machines spinning at the highly fortified Fordow site, along with hundreds more new advanced machines at Natanz. A caveat: The United States may have offered the regime informal but lucrative sanctions relief<\/a> to slow but not stop installation, meaning Iran could ramp back up any time. <\/span><\/p>\n

These developments pair poorly with new US and Israeli intelligence that Iranian scientists at civilian research institutes were recently studying computer modeling and metallurgy related to nuclear weapons. As a result, the US intelligence community was unable to assert<\/a> in a recent report to Congress that Iran is not working on nuclear weapons activities, prompting alarm<\/a> from members<\/a> of Congress who have seen the report\u2019s classified version and received briefings.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, it is unclear<\/a> whether the US and Israeli intelligence communities have adequate insight into Iran\u2019s more covert nuclear weapons-work at military sites.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the disarray of US election season and multiple world crises, Tehran\u2019s temptation to sprint to nuclear weapons will only grow. Washington and its European allies must immediately counter and deter further Iranian advances. <\/span><\/p>\n

As a follow-on to the IAEA board\u2019s Iran censure last June<\/a> \u2014 and in light of Tehran\u2019s failure to comply with the board\u2019s demands \u2014 the West must vote for a new censure at the IAEA\u2019s upcoming meeting. Yet since Iran used the June board resolution as a pretext to expand its uranium-enrichment capacity immediately after, the West must do better at deterring further advances. <\/span><\/p>\n

In the new IAEA resolution, Washington and its allies must refer Tehran\u2019s proliferation case to the UN Security Council, where the United States, the United Kingdom, or France may \u2014 without<\/a> Russia and China\u2019s veto \u2014 reimpose within 30 days all Iranian sanctions that currently remain lifted by the defunct nuclear accord. Importantly, those sanctions prohibit Tehran\u2019s uranium-enrichment activity and international (read: Russian and Chinese) missile and military trade with the regime. The West must also signal more sanctions pain is to come for additional Iranian advances. <\/span><\/p>\n

Iran is rapidly approaching the capability to produce a medium-sized nuclear arsenal, and no nation but Israel is acting to stop it. Unless the Western powers plan to counter an expansionist, messianic Islamic Republic with nuclear weapons \u2014 one that is already acting on plans<\/a> to destroy Israel by 2040 \u2014 they would do well to halt the regime\u2019s advances while there is still time.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Andrea Stricker<\/strong> is deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow her on Twitter <\/i>@StrickerNonpro<\/i><\/a>. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

Zawarto\u015b\u0107 publikowanych artyku\u0142\u00f3w i materia\u0142\u00f3w nie reprezentuje pogl\u0105d\u00f3w ani opinii Reunion’68,<\/em>
\nani te\u017c webmastera Blogu Reunion’68, chyba ze jest to wyra\u017anie zaznaczone.
\nTwoje uwagi, linki, w\u0142asne artyku\u0142y lub wiadomo\u015bci prze\u015blij na adres:
\n<\/em>webmaster@reunion68.com<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The World Must Act Andrea Stricker Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024. Photo: West Asia News Agency via REUTERS The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will soon issue new reporting on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[26,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115202"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=115202"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115202\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115297,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115202\/revisions\/115297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=115202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=115202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=115202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}