{"id":117626,"date":"2024-12-10T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/?p=117626"},"modified":"2024-12-10T11:22:38","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T09:22:38","slug":"11-00-104","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/?p=117626","title":{"rendered":"The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

Debbie Weiss<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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A person gestures next to a burning picture of President Bashar al-Assad, after rebels seized the capital and ousted the president, in Qamishli, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS\/Orhan Qereman<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad\u2019s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, with experts suggesting it has dismantled Iran\u2019s \u201cring of fire\u201d strategy and created both opportunities and challenges for Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time in hailing the moment as a \u201chistoric\u201d victory for Israeli strategy<\/a> and security, calling it \u201ca pivotal step toward regional stability and peace.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Assad regime is a central link in Iran\u2019s axis of evil \u2014 this regime has fallen,\u201d he said on Sunday.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking during a visit to Mount Bental on Israel\u2019s border with Syria, Netanyahu described the regime\u2019s downfall as the culmination of years of coordinated efforts to counter Iranian influence in Syria<\/a>. \u201cThis is a strategic achievement for Israel, the fruit of our resolute actions against Iran\u2019s entrenchment in the region.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A Fragmented Syria<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The vacuum left by Assad\u2019s downfall has fragmented Syria into competing zones of control. Dina Lisnyansky, an expert in political Islam and terrorism, explained the current dynamics and said there was reason for \u201ccautious optimism.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re seeing three main factions taking hold: Druze forces in the south, Kurds in the northeast, and Salafi Islamists elsewhere, including parts of Damascus,\u201d she told The Algemeiner<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Lisnyansky, this mosaic of power offers Israel a rare diplomatic opening. \u201cThis could be an opportunity for Israel to establish relations with individual factions or a new Syrian government.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, she cautioned against unbridled optimism regarding the Salafis, represented by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group<\/a> which led the raid on the Syrian capital of Damascus on Sunday. \u201cThe Salafi Islamists remain a branch of al-Qaeda, despite their leader [Abu Mohammed] al-Golani\u2019s rhetoric about good relations with Syria\u2019s neighbors \u2014 Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s no coincidence that they received congratulations today from the Taliban, who enthusiastically backed their achievements and the overthrow of Assad.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli similarly cautioned Israelis against premature celebrations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThese are jihadists and Islamists who have done some of the worst things, of the ilk of ISIS and al-Qaeda,\u201d he said, warning that Syria could \u201clook like Afghanistan in no time.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But, he said, the silver lining was the Kurdish control in the northeast region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lisnyansky warned that Turkey\u2019s role in facilitating the overthrow adds another layer of complexity for Israel. Turkey\u2019s growing influence in Syria even carries a potential risk of invasion, Lisnyansky said, referencing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s threats<\/a> earlier this year that if Turkey shared a border with Israel, he would have already demonstrated his country\u2019s capabilities, implying retaliation over Israel\u2019s war in Gaza.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTurkey is, without a doubt, hostile to Israel today. While we very much hope to improve relations with Turkey on one hand, we\u2019re not under any illusions, This means they could currently place forces on our border that might even invade our territory,\u201d she warned.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to proceed with very cautious optimism and understand that what\u2019s happening in the region is still extremely unclear,\u201d she concluded.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s Setback<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Assad regime\u2019s collapse has struck a significant blow to Iran\u2019s regional ambitions. Assad\u2019s government was a crucial link in Tehran\u2019s efforts to arm and fund terrorist proxies from Lebanon to Gaza, forming a so-called \u201cring of fire\u201d around Israel. With Damascus now fractured and Iranian proxies weakened<\/a>, the Islamic Republic\u2019s influence in Syria has been severely undermined.<\/span><\/p>\n

Issam Zeitoun, a former Syrian opposition figure and founder of the Syrian Peace Initiative, highlighted the importance of regional efforts in this shift. \u201cThere is an obvious international and regional decision to keep Iran out,\u201d he said. He credited Israel with playing a central role in curbing Iran\u2019s influence, emphasizing the broader international agreement driving these developments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zeitoun also highlighted the humanitarian consequences of the regime\u2019s fall, emphasizing the urgent need to support civilians in southern Syria. \u201cWe need to take care of them,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zeitoun, speaking to The Algemeiner<\/i> en route to Israel from Germany \u2014 where he fled following the Assad regime\u2019s crackdown \u2014 outlined his plans to arrive in Jerusalem to discuss the renewal of the Good Neighbor project, which provided essential supplies and humanitarian aid, including medical treatment, to thousands of Syrians in border communities during the height of the civil war.<\/span><\/p>\n

During his remarks at Mount Bental, Netanyahu also addressed the program, announcing Israel\u2019s intent to resume it and highlighting its impact, noting that \u201chundreds of Syrian children were born here in Israel.\u201d At the same time, he reaffirmed Israel\u2019s policy of avoiding direct involvement in Syria\u2019s internal conflicts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zeitoun expressed hope for a new era, emphasizing the potential of the Abraham Accords<\/a> in reshaping regional alliances, and adding that they could potentially include Syria\u2019s new leadership, depending on its trajectory. \u201cWe would love to join the Abraham Accords,\u201d he said, referring to a series of US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several countries in the Arab world in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone is happy. I\u2019m getting calls from everywhere with congratulations. It\u2019s been a very, very bad half-century for Syria,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf something happens that we don\u2019t like, we can change it,\u201d he added, expressing confidence that Syrians have learned from the past and will not allow another dictator to take power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Focus on Israel\u2019s Security<\/strong><\/h4>\n

While Netanyahu struck a celebratory tone, he also stressed the importance of vigilance. He gave the order for the Israel Defense Forces to be deployed in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, he said, marking the first time since the end of the Yom Kippur War<\/a> in 1973 that Israeli forces have been present in the area for more than a few hours. Israeli forces on Sunday also captured the Syrian side of Mount Hermon.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe are acting first and foremost to protect our border,\u201d he said. \u201cThis area has been controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone agreed upon in 1974, the Separation of Forces Agreement. This agreement has collapsed; the Syrian soldiers have abandoned their positions.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Nir Boms, chairman of the Syria Research Forum, also struck a cautiously optimistic note, pointing to the potential for renewed cooperation with moderate Syrian groups.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen success in working with opposition figures in the past, particularly in the south. Whether such collaboration can be replicated in this new Syria remains uncertain, but the opportunities are there,\u201d he told The Algemeiner<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis war is not over yet, but for those who follow the war in Syria and those who see Assad\u2019s downfall as a victory, it is at least a small reason to raise a toast,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Minorities in the Post-Assad Era<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Israeli Maj. Shadi Khalloul (res), an expert on the region and Aramaic Christian activist, emphasized the importance of securing the areas captured by Israel over the weekend. \u201cWe will take what we need according to our security needs until there is a safe and different reality,\u201d he told The Algemeiner<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Khalloul reflected on the broader implications for Christians in the region<\/a>, highlighting their historical suffering under Assad\u2019s regime, which he described as a \u201cvicious enemy\u201d to Israel and to Lebanon\u2019s Aramaic and Maronite communities. Now, with Assad\u2019s fall, communities across Lebanon \u2014 including Sunnis, Christians, and Druze \u2014 are celebrating, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He noted the significance of Israel\u2019s role in shaping this outcome: \u201cLebanon and Syria should thank Israel for liberating them, because without Israel this would not have happened today,\u201d he told i24News.<\/span><\/p>\n

But like the others, Khalloul warned of the risks tied to Syria\u2019s uncertain future, pointing to the potential for instability if secular and Islamist factions fail to reach a power-sharing agreement.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf these two sections find a deal to divide the power in Syria and rule Syria together, then we will have stability. But if not, we might see a civil war develop between these sides,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East Debbie Weiss A person gestures next to a burning picture of President Bashar al-Assad, after rebels seized the capital and ousted the president, in Qamishli, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS\/Orhan Qereman The collapse of Bashar al-Assad\u2019s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[26,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117626"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=117626"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117626\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117644,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117626\/revisions\/117644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=117626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=117626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=117626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}