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<\/a>Has time finally run out for Tehran\u2019s Islamist tyrants?<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\nJonathan S. Tobin<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n For the past 16 years, the world has continued to ask the same question with respect to the Islamist regime in Iran: Is it finally time for the despotic rule of the ayatollahs to end? Yet hopes that Iran might finally free itself have continually been disappointed. That\u2019s why even amid the heightened expectations that the breaking point has been reached, optimism about its imminent fall should remain tempered.<\/span><\/p>\n The theocracy imposed on the country in 1979\u2014when the government of Shah Reza Pahlavi collapsed and was replaced by the rule of religious extremists, led by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini\u2014has survived every previous challenge. Despite its manifest unpopularity, it has repeatedly been able to mobilize both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the nation\u2019s army to suppress protests with the sort of deadly force that intimidated a restive population into sullen acceptance of their fate. Nevertheless, the Islamist government\u2019s inability to effectively run a country rich in natural resources but now facing shortages of energy and clean water, as well as having wasted massive sums of money on building a nuclear program at home and funding terrorism abroad, has once again brought it to the brink.<\/span><\/p>\n Speculation that the time has finally arrived for the fall of Iran\u2019s theocratic government is centered on the latest round of protests<\/a> spreading throughout the country. An Iranian dissident site, the Human Rights Activists News Agency, reported<\/a> on Jan. 6 that after 10 days of demonstrations, 34 protesters had been killed and more than 2,000 had been arrested in 285 separate anti-regime rallies.<\/span><\/p>\n Unlike in the past, such as in 2009, when massive protests occurred, and in the fall of 2022, when women took to the streets after the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, the United States isn\u2019t signaling its passive support for the tyrants of Tehran. Under President Barack Obama, who was already planning a campaign of appeasement of the regime that would lead to the disastrous 2015 Iran nuclear deal and failed to speak out in support of the demonstrators, President Donald Trump has left no doubt about where the United States currently stands on the issue of Iran\u2019s future.<\/span><\/p>\n He warned<\/a> that American armed forces are \u201clocked and loaded,\u201d and ready to intervene. \u201cIf they start killing people, like they have in the past, I think they\u2019re going to get hit very hard by the United States,\u201d Trump said last week.<\/span><\/p>\n Given that the United States took part in a joint air campaign with Israel last June to take out Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, neither the Iranians nor anyone else should regard that as an idle boast or typical Trumpian braggadocio. Over the weekend, Trump sent in American forces to capture Venezuelan dictator and narco-terrorist Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and bring him back to the United States to face justice.<\/span><\/p>\n That should have further concentrated the minds of Iran\u2019s leaders on the prospect of what happens to deposed tyrants. If they don\u2019t make it to safety in friendly countries, their fate could be even less pleasant than that of Maduro. While none of them are currently under an American indictment, the reports<\/a> that Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already planned to escape to Moscow with his family and aides should the regime\u2019s forces fail to quell the protests. That\u2019s a sign that they understand that their continued grasp on power is not guaranteed.<\/span><\/p>\n The problem, though, is that the ayatollahs and the leaders of the IRGC are acting like they do plan to hold on. And the explanation for their strategy should sober up optimists who, not for the first time, are already making bold predictions about what a new Iran would look like and who might govern it.<\/span><\/p>\n The Iranian regime is still dangerous for three important reasons that separate it from historical examples of past tyrannical regimes that collapsed, such as that of France\u2019s monarchical ancien regime in 1789 or the Soviet Union in 1991. Unlike those governments, many, if not most, of those who serve Iran\u2019s theocracy are still ardent believers in the Islamist faith that has been its guiding force for the last 46 years. It\u2019s also true that, unlike the ayatollah, most of them don\u2019t have anywhere that they can flee to while holding on to their assets. As a result, the regime\u2019s henchmen\u2014both in the IRGC and the army\u2014seem willing to obey orders and kill as many of their compatriots as is necessary to once again stamp out hopes for freedom.<\/span><\/p>\n It remains an iron rule of history that tyrannies do not end because they are brutal. They collapse when they are no longer able to count on their loyalists to be brutal. They only fall when they are either conquered by external forces (i.e., Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan) and\/or experience military defeat that destroys their credibility (i.e., the junta in Argentina after its failed 1982 invasion of the Falkland Islands). Or they go down after suffering a collapse of faith in a regime\u2019s legitimacy and belief system, as in the case with France in 1789, and Moscow\u2019s evil empire after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.<\/span><\/p>\n Is such a crisis of faith happening in Tehran? It\u2019s hard to know for sure.<\/span><\/p>\n Their defeat at the hands of Israel and the United States, when their planes had free rein over Iran\u2019s skies as they sought out its nuclear and other targets, might turn out to be a tipping point. That was a body blow to a government that only a few years ago seemed well on its way to achieving regional hegemony with clients in power in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and part of Yemen. The Israeli rout of Tehran\u2019s Hezbollah auxiliaries in 2024 was an unexpected setback for a terrorist force that for years seemed to be invincible in Southern Lebanon. That, in turn, led to the end of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, a nation that seemed to be in Iran\u2019s pocket up until then.<\/span><\/p>\n Add to that the growing economic collapse of the country, and it\u2019s hard to see how a government that still sees itself as an expression of Islamist revolution can cling to power.<\/span><\/p>\n Yet while the casualty figures from anti-regime protests and the claims that demonstrators are prevailing in some parts of the country are a potential sign of regime collapse, the fact that army and IRGC forces are still firing on dissidents and killing dozens could indicate that the regime\u2019s taste for blood and their ability to shed it have not slackened.<\/span><\/p>\n Moreover, despite the encouragement they\u2019re getting from Washington and Jerusalem, Iran\u2019s protesters should be under no illusion that this time, the Americans or Israelis will do their fighting for them.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump\u2019s tough talk notwithstanding, implementing threats in South America, which is in Washington\u2019s backyard, is a far cry from doing so in the Middle East. Trump might order some airstrikes on regime targets, but he\u2019s not going to make the mistake of engaging in an invasion that might lead to American occupation of part of Iran. Trump wants to use U.S. military force to make the Iranians pay a high price for bloody repression and continuing to spread terror. He has no interest in occupying the country or replicating the mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan during the long wars there that Americans grew tired of.<\/span><\/p>\n If the rule of the ayatollahs is to end, it will require at least some of the Iranians with guns\u2014in either the IRGC or the army\u2014to turn them on their rulers. Americans, and even Israelis, might be prepared to help them become free. However, they are going to have to do most, if not all, of the hard and likely bloody work of overthrowing the theocrats themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n As illogical as it may be for an incompetent government that turned a rich land into a failed state to be able to hold onto power, Khamenei and his followers could do so if enough of their minions are still ready to slaughter more innocents demonstrating for freedom.<\/span><\/p>\n So, while Americans should be doing everything possible to encourage Iranians to throw off their shackles and rejoin the international community, it\u2019s by no means a certainty that this is going to happen or that even American assistance will make it a realistic possibility.<\/span><\/p>\n That\u2019s a discouraging thought for those who recognize just how dangerous Iran has become, both because of its status as a threshold nuclear power (or, at least, it was until last June) and its being the world\u2019s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Still, if Iranian opponents of the theocracy can\u2019t find a way to persuade at least some of the regime\u2019s enforcers to lay down their arms, then all the optimism about the end of the long Islamist nightmare will prove unfounded.<\/span><\/p>\n Zawarto\u015b\u0107 publikowanych artyku\u0142\u00f3w i materia\u0142\u00f3w nie reprezentuje pogl\u0105d\u00f3w ani opinii Reunion’68,<\/em> Has time finally run out for Tehran\u2019s Islamist tyrants? Jonathan S. Tobin The country is falling apart, pushed to the brink by failing resources and a nuclear defeat last summer. But as long as its minions are ready to slaughter dissidents, the ayatollahs will remain in power. Rocks, tree branches and a toppled charity box […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[33,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127196"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=127196"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127196\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":127205,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127196\/revisions\/127205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=127196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=127196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=127196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nThe country is falling apart, pushed to the brink by failing resources and a nuclear defeat last summer. But as long as its minions are ready to slaughter dissidents, the ayatollahs will remain in power.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
![](\"https:\/\/me.jnsi.org\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Aftermath-of-Protests-in-Hamedan-Iran-1320x880.jpg\")
Rocks, tree branches and a toppled charity box remain on a street during unrest amid demonstrations in Hamedan, Iran, on Jan. 1, 2026. The demonstrations erupted after shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar shut their businesses to protest the sharp fall of Iran’s currency and worsening economic conditions, with clashes reported in several provinces, and Iranian media and rights groups saying multiple people were killed in the violence, marking the largest protests to hit the Islamic Republic in three years. Photo by Mobina \/ Middle East Images \/ AFP via Getty Images.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\nTrump\u2019s threats<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Iron rules of history<\/strong><\/h4>\n
The Iranians must do it<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n![](\"https:\/\/me.jnsi.org\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Jonathan-S.-Tobin-480x480.png\")
Jonathan S. Tobin<\/strong> is editor-in-chief of the Jewish News Syndicate, a senior contributor for The Federalist, a columnist for Newsweek and a contributor to many other publications. He covers the American political scene, foreign policy, the U.S.-Israel relationship, Middle East diplomacy, the Jewish world and the arts. He hosts the JNS \u201cThink Twice\u201d podcast, both the weekly video program and the \u201cJonathan Tobin Daily\u201d program, which are available on all major audio platforms and YouTube. Previously, he was executive editor, then senior online editor and chief political blogger, for Commentary magazine. Before that, he was editor-in-chief of The Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia and editor of the Connecticut Jewish Ledger. He has won more than 60 awards for commentary, art criticism and other writing. He appears regularly on television, commenting on politics and foreign policy. Born in New York City, he studied history at Columbia University.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
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