![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gatestoneinstitute.org\/images\/gatestone-logo-1000.gif\"){kind=logo}
<\/a>Finish the Job: Leaving Iran’s Regime in Place Guarantees Endless Regional Instability<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\nMajid Rafizadeh<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Only two countries, the United States and Israel, have finally confronted a regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which, for nearly half a century, has held the world hostage and destabilized an entire region, all while brutally tormenting its own people.<\/span><\/p>\n Iran’s ruling system has built its identity on ideology \u2014 an expansionist doctrine rooted in “exporting the revolution,” undermining and attacking sovereign states, and financing terrorist proxies. From Hezbollah in Lebanon, to Hamas in Gaza, to the Houthis in Yemen, to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, to terrorist cells in Latin America, the regime has poured billions into non-state actors that perpetuate cycles of violence, weaken governments, and terrorize civilians. At home, it has maintained power through repression, torture, censorship and force.<\/span><\/p>\n In recent weeks, however, despite a media landscape that often appears<\/a> critical \u2014 or at times echoing narratives favorable to Tehran \u2014 the reality on the ground suggests that actual progress has been made in degrading the regime’s military capabilities and its hold on power.<\/span><\/p>\n In addition to having buried Iran’s three major nuclear facilities last June in less than two weeks, significant blows now include eliminating Iran’s air force<\/a>, navy<\/a>, weapons manufacturing infrastructure<\/a> and many of its missile launchers<\/a>. For years, Iran invested heavily in asymmetric maritime warfare \u2014 fast attack craft, mines, and unconventional tactics designed to disrupt shipping lanes and threaten global oil and gas flows. Reports and assessments indicate that key elements of this infrastructure have been permanently put out of operation\u2013 and will not be rebuilt overnight.<\/span><\/p>\n It was a capacity that took generations to construct.<\/span><\/p>\n This is precisely the moment when the greatest strategic mistake could be made: stopping halfway while leaving “moderate” extremists still in place.<\/span><\/p>\n The Iranian regime is, at its core, ideological, and not a conventional actor that recalibrates and retreats when pressured. When wounded, it recalculates, regroups, and seeks continuance. If left intact, the regime will almost certainly, at some point — after the Trump administration’s term ends — accelerate its most ambitious and dangerous projects, most notably its pursuit of nuclear weapons along with ballistic missiles to deliver them.<\/span><\/p>\n From Tehran’s perspective, the goal is clear. If conventional capabilities are degraded, then nuclear deterrence becomes not just desirable, but essential. A premature agreement would give the regime exactly what it needs: time to rebuild, adapt, and double down.<\/span><\/p>\n Under the 2015 JCPOA “nuclear deal” negotiated by the Obama administration, Iran accepted delaying<\/a> its nuclear weapons breakout until 2025 in exchange for sanctions relief. Rather than fundamentally altering its behavior, the regime used the breathing room to expand its regional influence, enrich more uranium, build thousands of ballistic missiles, fund its proxies, murder Americans, attempt to assassinate then presidential candidate Donald J. Trump, and, on October 7, 2023, use its Hamas proxy to invade Israel. In that part of the world, agreements with “infidels” can be considered tactical delays, not strategic transformations.<\/span><\/p>\n Now, faced with intensified pressure and internal fragility, the regime has, as usual, apparently signaled a willingness to negotiate. It may even agree to sweeping terms \u2013 say “yes” to anything \u2014 not because of any positive transformation but as a tactic for survival.<\/span><\/p>\n Domestically, Iran’s regime faces deep unpopularity. Recent anti-regime protests, economic hardship, and political repression have eroded its legitimacy. Israeli and US strikes have eliminated key personnel and capabilities. In such a position, it is likely to agree to almost anything if it ensures its own survival.<\/span><\/p>\n A ceasefire deal now would not resolve the underlying problem — it would freeze it in place temporarily while allowing the regime to recover. Once stabilized, it would resume its activities — with the same less-than-neighborly objectives.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, its network of allies \u2014 states such as Russia, North Korea and China \u2014 will provide avenues for technological support, economic lifelines and strategic coordination\u2014as they already have been doing<\/a> during the conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n There is also undoubtedly the calculation in Tehran that it can outlast President Trump ‘s strong leadership. The regime may assume that political cycles will be less assertive, creating opportunities to reset the board on more favorable terms.<\/span><\/p>\n The events of October 7, 2023, carried out by Hamas with Iran’s planning and backing<\/a> \u2013 and the Iranian regime’s slaughtering<\/a> more than 30,000 of its own unarmed citizens in just two days in January — serve as a reminder of what is at stake. These are the downstream consequences of a system that funds, trains, and arms groups that are committed to violence and terrorism. Without addressing the source, the cycle will continue.<\/span><\/p>\n If a ceasefire agreement is signed, Iran’s regime will recover. When it does, it is likely to come back more determined than ever to advance its nuclear weapons program, especially when Trump is no longer in office.<\/span><\/p>\n While extraordinary progress has been made in weakening key components of Iran’s regime, the temptation to shift toward accommodation needs to be avoided at all costs. Any agreement with this regime, or what is left of it, will almost certainly end up undoing the very gains that the US and Israel have achieved.<\/span><\/p>\n The choice, therefore, is between finishing what has been started or once again facing the same reality just around the bend.<\/span><\/p>\n Dr. Majid Rafizadeh<\/strong>, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has<\/i> authored<\/i><\/a> several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at<\/i> <\/span>dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n Zawarto\u015b\u0107 publikowanych artyku\u0142\u00f3w i materia\u0142\u00f3w nie reprezentuje pogl\u0105d\u00f3w ani opinii Reunion’68,<\/em> Finish the Job: Leaving Iran’s Regime in Place Guarantees Endless Regional Instability Majid Rafizadeh This is precisely the moment when the greatest strategic mistake could be made: stopping halfway while leaving “moderate” extremists still in place. If left intact, the regime will almost certainly, at some point — after the Trump administration’s term ends — […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[33,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129288"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=129288"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129288\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":129419,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129288\/revisions\/129419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=129288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=129288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=129288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\n
\n![](\"https:\/\/www.gatestoneinstitute.org\/pics\/5661.jpg\")
This is the moment when the United States and Israel could make greatest strategic mistake in the Iran war: stopping halfway while leaving “moderate” extremists still in place. Pictured: Policemen flank a cleric atop an armored vehicle, at a public funeral for militiamen of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran on March 11, 2026. (Photo by Majid Saeedi\/Getty Images)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\n
\n
\nani te\u017c webmastera Blogu Reunion’68, chyba ze jest to wyra\u017anie zaznaczone.
\nTwoje uwagi, linki, w\u0142asne artyku\u0142y lub wiadomo\u015bci prze\u015blij na adres:
\n<\/em>webmaster@reunion68.com<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"