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<\/a>Assessing the ceasefire and the criticisms of Trump and Netanyahu<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\nAlex Traiman<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Despite pummeling Iran, the leaders of the world\u2019s two strongest air forces are fending off criticism from political opponents amid a two-week ceasefire. Results on the battlefield appear to be taking a backseat to political machinations.<\/span><\/p>\n The analysis of wars is changing in the 24-hour media and social-media cycle. Tweets and press briefings can be more powerful weapons than missiles. How a particular post lands and reverberates can have just as powerful an influence on a war\u2019s outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n Not so long ago, world leaders were not bombing via social media. This is particularly true of terror sponsors and their proxies. Public statements affect military posture. Wars\u2014and, more importantly, the perception of wars\u2014are judged mercilessly, minute-to-minute, by commentators without military experience and with limited understanding of how diplomacy actually works.<\/span><\/p>\n Pundits can claim that Iran and its terror proxies have won a war, and millions around the world can buy into a warped narrative, even when not grounded in reality.<\/span><\/p>\n Even if the military operation ends with the current ceasefire, the gains have been immense.<\/span><\/p>\n Together, the air forces of the United States and Israel struck thousands of targets with precision. The air forces neutralized Iran\u2019s known and covert nuclear sites, as well as its ballistic missile production facilities\u2014the two prevailing objectives of the war.<\/span><\/p>\n The dual existential threats of a nuclear weapon and tens of thousands of ballistic missiles capable of overwhelming Israel\u2019s multilayer missile defense appear to have been eliminated.<\/span><\/p>\n The United States reports that Iran\u2019s ballistic missile and drone capabilities have been degraded by 90%. Additionally, the Israel Defense Forces report that 70% of Iran\u2019s ballistic-missile launchers have been destroyed. Missiles cannot be fired without launchers, which are significantly more complex to produce than the missiles themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said this week that \u201c\u2018Operation Epic Fury\u2019 was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital-V military victory,\u201d adding that it \u201cdecimated Iran\u2019s military and rendered it combat-ineffective for years to come.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n U.S. President Donald Trump said the war had been a \u201ctotal and complete victory. 100%. No question about it.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n British broadcaster Piers Morgan responded to Hegseth\u2019s assessment by claiming that \u201cAmerica\/Israel may have won the war on the battlefield, but Iran won the war on the waterways, paralyzed the world\u2019s energy supplies, and caused huge global economic damage. That\u2019s why President Trump has moved to do a deal. It\u2019s not a \u2018historic victory\u2019 or anything like it.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Other commentators have made similar claims.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump responded on Truth Social that \u201cthe Fake News Media has lost total credibility, not that they had any to begin with. Because of their massive Trump Derangement Syndrome (Sometimes referred to as TDS!), they love saying that Iran is \u2018winning\u2019 when, in fact, everyone knows that they are LOSING, and LOSING BIG!\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n He cited the destruction of Iranian naval and air capabilities, air-defense systems, radar, and missile and drone factories, as well as the loss of senior leadership figures.<\/span><\/p>\n Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone to great lengths to present the war gains to the Israeli public, but has stopped short of calling the campaign the \u201ctotal victory\u201d that he has vowed to lead at earlier points in the war, telling Israelis this week that \u201cthe battle is not yet over.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Netanyahu stated that the war has provided \u201cmassive achievements,\u201d calling it a \u201chistoric change,\u201d noting that Israel and the United States \u201ccrushed the nuclear program. We crushed the missiles, and we crushed the regime.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Many Israelis are wary that a ceasefire is a good idea or can hold beyond the stated two-week time frame\u2014even as Israeli parents are glad to send their children back to school after a six-week hiatus.<\/span><\/p>\n Within Israel, longtime opponents of Netanyahu have been quick to call the ceasefire a defeat for the allies.<\/span><\/p>\n Opposition leader Yair Lapid called the ceasefire a \u201cmilitary success turned into a diplomatic disaster.\u201d This is the same Lapid, who in October 2022\u2014while serving as a temporary caretaker prime minister with limited powers ahead of an election\u2014gave away a valuable strategic natural gas reserve in strategic waters to Lebanon, to supposedly \u201cstave off\u201d a war with Hezbollah.<\/span><\/p>\n A senior defense correspondent for Israel\u2019s Channel 13<\/i> said that Netanyahu\u2019s claims that Iran is weaker than ever are \u201chalf-truths,\u201d alleging that \u201cIran came out stronger from this war\u201d and has emerged as a regional power.<\/span><\/p>\n It is no coincidence that those who have been criticizing Netanyahu for years are the ones criticizing him now. Israel is heading to an election before the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n Flying side-by-side for six weeks with the U.S. Air Force\u2014the most powerful in the world by orders of magnitude\u2014against a common enemy represents a major diplomatic achievement for Israel. It reflects decades of efforts by Netanyahu to strengthen U.S.-Israel ties and highlight the dangers posed by a nuclear Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n There is no way that Israel could have possibly achieved the level of destruction inflicted on Iran on its own without the United States. Aside from military bases across the region, aircraft carriers, naval attack vessels and fighter jets, the United States brought dozens of refueling planes into the theater.<\/span><\/p>\n Israel, by contrast, has only a limited refueling fleet. Throughout the military campaign, Israeli jets were continuously connected to American refueling planes over the region. Without that refueling capacity, Israel would have been able to fly just a fraction of sorties.<\/span><\/p>\n What the two air forces accomplished together would have taken Israel months had it gone alone. And Israel likely would have been forced to absorb incoming ballistic missiles for the duration.<\/span><\/p>\n The resilience of the Israeli home front is a significant component of the nation\u2019s defense, and a critical calculation when determining the length of any campaign. Israel\u2019s ability to sustain an extended war is directly linked to the civilian population\u2019s readiness to head in and out of bomb shelters.<\/span><\/p>\n Israelis put up valiantly with Iran\u2019s ballistic-missile fire. But parents of school-age children were celebrating when the ceasefire was reached, and the homefront command announced that school would resume after a six-week hiatus.<\/span><\/p>\n Bombing alongside the United States shortened the campaign\u2019s timeframe dramatically.<\/span><\/p>\n Any Israeli prime minister would have chosen to bomb together with America, even if it was known from the outset that the United States would only commit to a conflict of four to six weeks, and possibly end the campaign before a complete Iranian surrender.<\/span><\/p>\n Those who criticize Netanyahu for the (so-far temporary) ceasefire that Trump declared take for granted that Trump committed to fly alongside Israel to begin with.<\/span><\/p>\n Furthermore, the notion that Israel was blindsided by the ceasefire declared in place by Trump is absurd. The level of coordination, both military and diplomatic, between the two allies is unprecedented. Earlier in the conflict, Netanyahu and Trump each intimated that they were speaking on a daily basis.<\/span><\/p>\n Bombing side by side with the United States has had benefits beyond the Iranian theater. Firstly, the United States has seen firsthand how exceptional Israel\u2019s air force is. America has been duly impressed with Israel\u2019s pilots\u2014not a single Israeli plane or pilot was lost in six weeks of war.<\/span><\/p>\n Plus, America has marveled at Israeli upgrades to the American-made hardware it uses. This includes significant software enhancements, as well as the rigging of Israel\u2019s F35i Adir fighter jets to carry more fuel, dramatically extending the plane\u2019s flight range.<\/span><\/p>\n Israel has also demonstrated how valuable it is as an intelligence gatherer and provider. The United States has relied heavily on Israeli intelligence, including on its own portion of air missions. It is widely believed that Israeli intelligence in the Middle East is at far-superior levels to that of the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n Hegseth has repeatedly praised Israel\u2019s performance as an ally, particularly notable given its relatively small size compared to the United States. Israel, with only 10 million citizens, is the size of just one of America\u2019s smallest states: New Jersey.<\/span><\/p>\n Former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer often posited that Israel would prove to be America\u2019s most important ally in the current decade. Those predictions have never proved more prescient.<\/span><\/p>\n Many choose to grade U.S.-Israel relations on the political relationships between Netanyahu and Trump, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and Republicans on one side versus Netanyahu and former presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats on the other side. Yet, this is a short-sided understanding of the relationship.<\/span><\/p>\n Deep behind the politics is a military-intelligence alliance unlike any other. No American ally could have possibly flown as competently alongside the U.S. Air Force and provided as much valuable intelligence as Israel. As much as Israel-bashers would like for America to distance itself from the Jewish state, the joint air campaign further cements the alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n Beyond Washington, other countries are closely watching Israel\u2019s military performance. Joint operations with the United States have strengthened Israel\u2019s reputation as a regional power. Israel\u2019s adversaries have observed that the Jewish state is a \u201cRoaring Lion\u201d\u2014the name of Israel\u2019s operation\u2014rather than a paper tiger. Gulf states are likely to take note of Israel\u2019s demonstrated willingness to defend regional security interests.<\/span><\/p>\n Israel\u2019s prowess and capabilities stand in stark comparison to those of European nations.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have expressed their profound disappointment with European powers, particularly the United Kingdom, France and Spain, while the United States is threatening the breakup of the NATO alliance and shuttering American bases across Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n Yet European powers, in particular Germany, are signing up not only to utilize Israel\u2019s proven, sophisticated missile defense systems, but even to manufacture Israeli interceptors. Spoiler: even Spain, one of the most vocal Israel bashers, contracts advanced Israeli weapons systems via Germany.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the war may not be over. Even if the ceasefire holds longer than the proposed 14-day window, fighting may resume in the not-too-distant future.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump declared a 14-day ceasefire to give Iran the chance to negotiate a way out of the punishment it has absorbed for the past six weeks. But negotiations between Trump and Iran have a recent track record of ending without a settlement, followed by an immediate military campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n Back in April 2024, Trump gave Iran a 60-day window to negotiate the end to its nuclear program. On the 61st day, the \u201c12-day war\u201d was underway. Israel launched \u201cOperation Rising Lion,\u201d which culminated with America\u2019s \u201cOperation Midnight Hammer\u201d and the bombing of Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.<\/span><\/p>\n In February, after America and Israel watched Iran attempt to restart its nuclear program and accelerate its ballistic-missile production, Trump again gave Iran 10 days to negotiate. When negotiations broke down, \u201cOperation Epic Fury\u201d was launched.<\/span><\/p>\n The president is now giving Iran 14 days to negotiate. For Iran, the third time may not be the charm.<\/span><\/p>\n Entering into negotiations\u2014however likely or unlikely they are to succeed\u2014may provide benefits. For one, America wants to figure out how badly the chain of command in Iran was broken and if the faction it is currently negotiating with has consolidated control over the country.<\/span><\/p>\n If Iran completely stops firing ballistic missiles and drones across the region and allows boats to sail unimpeded through the Straits of Hormuz for 14 days, then it is clear they are in control. Once control is established, negotiations can determine whether Iran\u2019s new top leaders are more reasonable actors.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump would be pleased if the new top echelons recognize that nuclear ambitions and ballistic missiles will be the permanent downfall of the Islamic Republic. As Netanyahu stated during previous rounds of negotiations with Iran, as well as with Hamas, either they can disarm the easy way or be disarmed the hard way.<\/span><\/p>\n Where Netanyahu may have exhibited a tactical edge over Trump is that he has consistently favored negotiating while the enemy remains under fire. Trump and Hegseth have insisted that Iran \u201cbegged\u201d America for a ceasefire. That may be true. But the moment a ceasefire is declared, Iran\u2019s perceived leverage changes.<\/span><\/p>\n Iran\u2019s leaders may now be hedging that Trump is as eager for the war to stop as they are. In their view, that levels the playing field. It may soon prove to be a deadly gamble, and fighting may quickly resume.<\/span><\/p>\n Yet at the same time, statements made in public often differ substantially from closed-door realities. Iran\u2019s present leadership may prove to be slightly more reasonable than their predecessors.<\/span><\/p>\n Of course, even if a diplomatic accommodation is reached, in the Middle East, negotiated settlements are often not worth the paper they are printed on. See: Iran\u2019s signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.<\/span><\/p>\n Washington and Jerusalem are confronting adversaries with a culture of martyrdom. To those who relish martyrdom and ideology, death and destruction do not equal downfall in their calculation. They refuse to admit defeat, even when punished to the point of near-obliteration.<\/span><\/p>\n Take Hamas in Gaza, for example. In a two-year military campaign since the terrorist operatives invaded and attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the IDF has destroyed 70% of the buildings in the Strip. Most of Gaza\u2019s population lives in tents.<\/span><\/p>\n Hamas no longer has rockets to fire at Israel. More than half of the terror-tunnel infrastructure it built, much of it funded by Tehran, has been destroyed. Hamas poses zero military threat to the Israeli home front and won\u2019t for many years. Israel now controls more than half of the entire Gaza Strip.<\/span><\/p>\n But Hamas claims to have won because a few thousand terrorists still run around with machine guns and continue to dominate the suffering, unarmed population.<\/span><\/p>\n If this is what Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran consider a victory, then they should continue winning this way for the next 100 years.<\/span><\/p>\n For Israel, a major stated goal was regime change. The opening strike of the war eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Unlike the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and the assassination of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah, Khamenei was an official head of state. Israel similarly assassinated Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani and numerous other members of Iran\u2019s repressive and fanatical leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n As of this writing, it appears that a remnant of the regime remains. What is not known is how long they will be able to hold on to power.<\/span><\/p>\n The regime held in place by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was already at its weakest point in decades before Operation Epic Fury. Supporters and critics of the war alike posited that it was unreasonable to expect regime change from the air. Unwilling or unable to place troops inside Iran to fight the IRGC on the ground, it remains to be seen whether the regime will ultimately crash.<\/span><\/p>\n If it is to fall, it will be at the hands of the Iranians themselves. Millions protested against the regime earlier this year, with the IRGC and Basij shock troops mowing down tens of thousands of defenseless protesters.<\/span><\/p>\n Throughout the air campaign, Iranians were urged by Israel, the United States and former Crown Prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi to stay out of the streets. If the ceasefire holds, calls may come for Iranians to resume domestic protests and riots.<\/span><\/p>\n Just as in Gaza, where Hamas continues to cling to power due to its monopoly on machine guns, the IRGC maintains a significant coercive capacity inside Iran. Trump intimated last week that the United States had attempted to provide weapons to Iranian opposition elements, possibly through Kurdish intermediaries, but that the weapons did not reach their intended recipients.<\/span><\/p>\n In a statement to reporters, Trump stated that America had sent \u201ca lot of guns\u201d that were \u201csupposed to go to the people so they could fight back against these thugs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n He went on to accuse the transfer agents of not delivering the weapons to their intended destination. \u201cThe people that they sent them to kept them,\u201d adding, \u201cSo I\u2019m very upset with a certain group of people, and they\u2019re going to pay a big price for that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Hopefully, the guns will soon find their intended destination. Should the regime fall in the months ahead, all of Israel\u2019s goals would have been reached.<\/span><\/p>\n Zawarto\u015b\u0107 publikowanych artyku\u0142\u00f3w i materia\u0142\u00f3w nie reprezentuje pogl\u0105d\u00f3w ani opinii Reunion’68,<\/em> Assessing the ceasefire and the criticisms of Trump and Netanyahu Alex Traiman Pundits can claim that Iran and its terror proxies have won a war, even if it has no grounding in reality. If this is what Hamas, Hezbollah and Tehran consider a victory, then they should continue winning this way for the next 100 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[33,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129710"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=129710"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129710\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":129733,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129710\/revisions\/129733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=129710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=129710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=129710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nPundits can claim that Iran and its terror proxies have won a war, even if it has no grounding in reality. If this is what Hamas, Hezbollah and Tehran consider a victory, then they should continue winning this way for the next 100 years.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
![](\"https:\/\/static.jns.org\/dims4\/default\/72c6f1d\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2048x1153+0+0\/resize\/1000x563!\/format\/webp\/quality\/90\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.jns.org%2Fuploads%2F2022%2F01%2FIAF-US-Air-Force-Central-Command-Joint-Air-Exercise.jpeg\")
Israeli Air Force and U.S. Air Force fighter jets fly together during a joint exercise. Credit: IDF Spokesperson\u2019s Unit.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\nImmense war gains<\/b><\/h4>\n
\u2018Capital-V military victory\u2019<\/b><\/h4>\n
\u2018Battle is not yet over\u2019<\/b><\/h4>\n
Israel\u2019s major diplomatic achievement<\/b><\/h4>\n
Israeli resilience<\/b><\/h4>\n
Israel as a top-flight ally<\/b><\/h4>\n
\u2018Roaring Lion,\u2019 not paper tiger<\/b><\/h4>\n
The ceasefire may not hold<\/b><\/h4>\n
Possible benefits of negotiations<\/b><\/h4>\n
Shifting leverage<\/b><\/h4>\n
Opponents who never admit defeat<\/b><\/h4>\n
On the road to regime change?<\/b><\/h4>\n
Arming the opposition<\/b><\/h4>\n
\n![](\"https:\/\/static.jns.org\/dims4\/default\/fa58276\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3633x3633+0+0\/resize\/200x200!\/format\/webp\/quality\/90\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-jns-prod.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F04%2FAlex-Traiman-Updated-Photo-cropped.jpg\")
Alex Traiman is the CEO and Jerusalem bureau chief of the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) and host of \u201cJerusalem Minute.\u201d A seasoned Israeli journalist, documentary filmmaker and startup consultant, he is an expert on Israeli politics and U.S.-Israel relations. He has interviewed top political figures, including Israeli leaders, U.S. senators and national security officials with insights featured on major networks like BBC, Bloomberg, CBS, NBC, Fox and Newsmax. A former NCAA champion fencer and Yeshiva University Sports Hall of Fame member, he made aliyah in 2004, and lives in Jerusalem with his wife and five children.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
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