{"id":84908,"date":"2021-04-10T17:05:30","date_gmt":"2021-04-10T15:05:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/?p=84908"},"modified":"2021-04-03T15:52:17","modified_gmt":"2021-04-03T13:52:17","slug":"10-05-62","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/?p=84908","title":{"rendered":"Ex-IDF intel. chief: Israel must continue covert ops in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>Ex-IDF intel. chief: Israel must continue covert ops in Iran<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

YONAH JEREMY BOB <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Aharon Ze\u2019evi-Farkash believes that the Biden administration will not rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal before the June Iranian presidential election.<\/strong><\/h5>\n

AHARON ZE\u2019EVI-FARKASH served as chief of IDF intelligence from 2001-2006. \/ (photo credit: COURTESY AHARON ZE\u2019EVI-FARKASH)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDon\u2019t worry, we are there in Iran; we will make sure they do not cross the line,\u201d said senior Russian officials during a visit to Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was during Aharon Ze\u2019evi-Farkash\u2019s 2001-2006 term as chief of IDF Military Intelligence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze\u2019evi-Farkash and the Russian officials were debating how much Israel could trust Moscow to be its last line of defense to make sure that the Islamic Republic did not go nuclear, even as Russia was helping Tehran progress in various nuclear realms.<\/span><\/p>\n

The retired IDF major-general was not satisfied by the initial reassurance, and responded with a characteristic stinging reply, \u201cYou\u2019ll make sure? Just like you made sure that China, India and Pakistan would not go nuclear?\u201d (All three countries obtained nuclear weapons \u2013 in 1964, 1974 and 1998, respectively \u2013 despite Russian opposition.)<\/span><\/p>\n

A bit taken aback, but never wanting to back off, the Russian officials said, \u201cNo, we will really try because it is not good for anyone for Iran to be nuclear,\u201d citing Iran\u2019s Islamic radicalism and the millions of Muslims living in Russia about whom Moscow always has nightmares.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is with this skepticism that Ze\u2019evi-Farkash comes to the questions of those who think Tehran can be coaxed out of nuclear weapons or that it will give up the pursuit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite his skepticism that Iran can be prevented from getting nuclear weapons indefinitely, he is strongly in favor of putting off that grim day for as long as possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, Ze\u2019evi-Farkash believes that the Biden administration will not rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal before the June Iranian presidential election.<\/span>
\n\u201cI don\u2019t know if they [the Biden administration] will get a completely new or improved deal. Even though [president Donald] Trump is gone, a deal is far-off for the US. There won\u2019t be a deal before June,\u201d he told The Jerusalem Post Magazine in a recent extensive interview.<\/span><\/p>\n

Continuing over tea and pastries while sitting socially distanced at his spacious home on a gray afternoon, he stated: \u201cThere is a big struggle in Iran between extremists and pragmatists. Some accuse [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani of putting Iran through something intolerable. The US broke the [nuclear] deal, so\u201d there is no reason to make a new deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stipulated, \u201cFirst, you get rid of the sanctions. After that, we will come back to the agreement\u2019s provisions\u201d in terms of nuclear limitations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Getting animated, Ze\u2019evi-Farkash \u2013 who made aliyah at 14 from Romania and broke into Israeli society when he was embraced as a true talent by the IDF \u2013 said this disagreement between Iran and the US about how to return to the 2015 deal and negotiations \u201cis the Archimedean point. Biden, and the US through his voice, clearly said no.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIran will want more and more concessions for agreeing to attend negotiations,\u201d he predicted. \u201cOnly Israel can impact the situation,\u201d and it is a separate question whether it will have an impact.<\/span><\/p>\n

IN ZE\u2019EVI-FARKASH\u2019S view, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s overly aggressive tactics banging heads with the US led to the Jewish state being cut out of the Iran nuclear negotiations during the key 2014-2015 period.<\/span><\/p>\n

PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu exposes files proving Iran\u2019s nuclear program in an April 2018 press conference at the Kirya in Tel Aviv. (Photo credit: Miriam Alster\/Flash90)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The former Military Intelligence chief recalled that in July-August 2003, during his term, Israel\u2019s more calibrated strategy helped the US and the EU uncover and lead to the elimination of the Islamic Republic\u2019s covert Parchin nuclear facility.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another element of Ze\u2019evi-Farkash\u2019s criticism of any Netanyahu strategy that entails open confrontation with the US over Iran nuclear issues, as opposed to quieter, behind-the-scenes networking, relates to his nuanced view of the 2015 deal itself.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe deal is not great. But the situation now is much worse than in 2015. Compare things now to May 2019. Trump had gotten out of the deal in May 2018. For a full year Iran had strategic patience, and they did not move a millimeter besides small issues\u201d related to concealing past knowledge they had acquired.<\/span><\/p>\n

Next, Tehran \u201cstarted to threaten: If you don\u2019t come back to the deal, we will do 1, 2, 3 and 4 \u2013 increased volume of enrichment, higher-quality enrichment, advanced centrifuges which are six times faster. Now they have enough uranium for two nuclear weapons,\u201d if they decided to break out.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey have made uranium metal, which looks like pita bread,\u201d he said with a deadpan, \u201cbut represents a very advanced stage. They have made it harder for the IAEA to conduct inspections,\u201d with big delays, some of which have not been publicly reported, dating back to December 2020, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The former intelligence chief said, \u201cUnder the JCPOA, they wouldn\u2019t have been allowed to make uranium metal for 15 years…. An agreement with holes, and I hope in the future with smaller holes, is still better than an Iran with no deal.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

RALLYING AGAINST the Iran nuclear deal on Capitol Hill in Washington, 2015. (Photo credit: Jonathan Ernst\/Reuters)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Another problem that Ze\u2019evi-Farkash flagged was the July 2020 $400 billion 25-year deal between Tehran and Beijing regarding oil, cyber, intelligence, nuclear and a variety of other issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the public narrative at the time of the interview with the Magazine was that the deal would not be final or implemented until sometime in the future, he said that \u201c20% of China\u2019s energy is imported from Iran. There are secret annexes to the China-Iran deal which are already happening, but the deal has not been publicly finalized so as not to anger the Saudis.\u201d Essentially, he had already correctly predicted the deal was happening and would be fully consummated, which occurred last week.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pointing out that former Bank of Israel governor and US Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer has warned that China will pass the US as the world\u2019s premier economic power within 20 years, he added, \u201cwith corona \u2013 some say by 2025 or 2030.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

While Israel brags about the $3b. in defense assistance it gets annually from the US, he said that the backing China is giving the Islamic Republic dwarfs that sum.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, he said that China has enhanced its global image with coronavirus vaccine diplomacy, selling to weaker and needier countries, while the US was focused on its own issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

He said Chinese support for Iran has and will keep it strong, and cited a special plaque posted at the Isfahan enrichment nuclear facility expressing gratitude to China for its assistance.<\/span><\/p>\n

In one of his most striking analytical points, he said that Iran does not really care about extending the nuclear limitations beyond the 2030 sunset deadline.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though Tehran pretends to have a super hard line that the 2030 deadline cannot be extended, he said all of this is negotiation strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, he said, the ayatollahs have tremendous strategic patience and a long-term outlook. As long as they can get to the nuclear threshold at some point without serious resistance or threat from the US, they do not care much about the timeline.<\/span><\/p>\n

But he warned that the Iranians \u201care vehemently determined to get to the nuclear threshold\u201d both to secure their regime and to empower themselves regionally \u2013 whether it be in 2030 or 2040.<\/span><\/p>\n

Personally, Ze\u2019evi-Farkash believes that the largest hole in the 2015 nuclear deal was that it permitted Iran to continue developing its ballistic missile program.<\/span><\/p>\n

He said any new deal \u201cneeds to include the ballistic missiles. If they were limited to 1,000 kilometers, Israel could rest\u201d more easily, since the Jewish state is more than 1,000 kilometers away from Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, he said that sanctions should not be removed until limits on ballistic missiles are added to the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

For Ze\u2019evi-Farkash, this issue is especially crucial given that Jerusalem can already see the result of letting an enemy, Hezbollah, reach a point of obtaining a massive missile arsenal within range of the whole country and which can overwhelm Israel\u2019s missile shield.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stating that the worst part of the threat from Hezbollah is not the more than 150,000 rockets it has, he clarified that the biggest problem is Hezbollah\u2019s potential ability to fire thousands of rockets per day.<\/span>
\nThis would be too many rockets at once for Israel\u2019s missile defense to prevent significant casualties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze\u2019evi-Farkash said that a big advantage the Islamic Republic has is that it \u201chas a long-term strategy…. We don\u2019t have one. And if we have a long-term strategy, we do not follow it. We only deal with short-term issues,\u201d noting that Israel bungled the Al Ghamr and Baqura territories with Jordan.<\/span>
\nHis point was that if Netanyahu had spent even a modicum of energy shoring up relations with Jordan, Israel could have leased these areas indefinitely as part of its 1995 peace deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, Israel had to return them to Amman because Jordan was furious with general Israeli conduct and was in no mood to grant Jerusalem anything.<\/span>
\nIn contrast, he said Iran thinks in a long-term, very pragmatic way, saying \u201ceven after [the assassination of Mohsen] Fakhrizadeh, they can push off their response. It does not matter if they respond right after the June elections or much later.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

On a related note, he said, \u201cIran understood that there was a 50\/50 chance that Trump would lose the US election, so they made a decision to push off any major moves until after the election.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Another example where he worries about Tehran\u2019s long-term planning is its ability to threaten Israel from Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n

To date, Jerusalem has had success with ongoing attacks on Iranian positions and weapons transfers in Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, he discussed Iran\u2019s new strategic deal with Syria which he said will eventually bring to them an Iranian version of the S-300 or S-400 antiaircraft missile system.<\/span><\/p>\n

At that point, Israel may no longer have the same operational freedom in Syria that it currently has.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is because the Islamic Republic is determined \u201cnot to allow Israel to do whatever it wants…. This would endanger the sole achievements in Syria of Khamenei and Hezbollah\u201d after pouring in money and soldiers.<\/span><\/p>\n

PLAYING IRAN, the retired major-general sits with experts during an Iran war game in Herzliya, 2010. (Photo credit: Nir Elias\/Reuters)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

ZE\u2019EVI-FARKASH\u2019S ADVICE on dealing with Iran involves a range of moves.<\/span>
\nHe does not believe broad military force will resolve the standoff with Iran, but at this stage says, \u201cWhen everyone is trying to define their position, Israel must continue covert operations, not just in Syria \u2013 in all places.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe nation of Israel doesn\u2019t believe in miracles. It\u2019s built on them, but we don\u2019t count on them. We always prepare. So we need to stop things from getting bad with Syria. Some of what we do is publicized, most is not,\u201d he said, waxing a unique mix of bold and philosophical.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, he said that Israel can slow down Iran and adversaries using its cyber capabilities, since \u201ccyber has no boundaries. You can do things without leaving any fingerprints.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He was referencing foreign reports attributing to Israel cyberattacks on Iran\u2019s port of Bandar Abbas in May 2020 and on its Natanz nuclear centrifuges with the Stuxnet virus in 2009-2010.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, Ze\u2019evi-Farkash said using force by itself is not a long-term solution. \u201cWe cannot repeatedly attack them [like with Iraq\u2019s and Syria\u2019s nuclear programs]. They are too smart, have too many precision-guided missiles, and will soon have satellites to watch us just like we watch them.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, he said that the Islamic Republic\u2019s nuclear program and knowledge are spread out widely and defused among its dozens of universities.<\/span>
\nHe added that Iran could also retaliate with significant rocket strikes on Israel from Iraq and Yemen, if the Jewish state undertook a broad attack against Tehran\u2019s nuclear program facilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

In terms of Iran\u2019s top proxy, Hezbollah, he explained incisively that it \u201csuffered its largest blow when we withdrew from Lebanon. They lost legitimacy with everyone for attacking Israel…. What Hezbollah wants is not a war with Israel, but one big short successful battle of a few days where it regains legitimacy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This kind of event has happened a few times with short skirmishes between Israel and Hamas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze\u2019evi-Farkash supported and paraphrased the recent speech by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi, saying, \u201cHezbollah has changed Lebanon into an urban war zone. All the houses that have weapons \u2013 I am very sorry, don\u2019t sleep there. It is lawful and it is proportionate [to attack such sites]. You, [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah are not safe there. I will go after you. Nasrallah understands… Lebanese cities would be destroyed, so he won\u2019t fight beyond a few days or a week.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

MOVING TO the impact of normalization with Arab countries on Israel and the region, he said that the trend \u201ccannot be pushed back\u201d and predicted that there would also be normalization with Saudi Arabia \u201cwithin six months to one year.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He said normalization is the one area where Netanyahu acted in a long-term strategic manner and should also be given credit for a \u201chuge achievement.\u201d<\/span>
\nIn terms of the impact on Iran, he said that \u201cafter normalization with the UAE and Bahrain, they feel we are choking them,\u201d creating new allies close to their border, and have inverted Tehran\u2019s preference to pressure Israel with proxies on its border.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze\u2019evi-Farkash said the normalization trend \u201cwill also be good for Jordan and Egypt…. It is a major change for all of the moderate Sunnis. It is not a surprise that Morocco and others\u201d are joining in.<\/span>
\nThough even during his term he had quiet meetings with Arab intelligence officials, he said that the change meant that \u201cafter 72 years Israel became an open and official part of the region.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He said that \u201cthe central basis for normalization was the common struggle with the Shi\u2019ite-Iranian crescent and its nuclear program. They [moderate Sunnis] want us to be with them if Iran becomes a nuclear power.<\/span>
\nAccording to Ze\u2019evi-Farkash, another major significant impact of normalization is \u201cthere won\u2019t be annexation during the term of the next government whether [led by] Netanyahu\u201d or even others on the political Right \u2013 normalization is more important.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

THE FORMER intelligence chief has some other predictions for the future.<\/span>
\nIn a June 2018 speech, Ze\u2019evi-Farkash had audaciously predicted that by 2025, Israel would have 10,000 satellites and other forms of surveillance which collectively would provide enough constant video surveillance of the Middle East sufficient to carry out targeted killings of terrorists at any time and any place in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Asked if he still stood by this prediction nearly three years later, he responded, \u201cI come back to the IDF chief\u2019s multiyear plan. It speaks explicitly not about merely one unit, but about the entire IDF having the capability to gather real-time intelligence to connect the headquarters, the data and those on the front.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhether from a smaller drone, a larger remotely operated aircraft, special forces, human-operated aircraft or other means, now a mere company commander has intelligence coverage for everything around him at a distance of 500 meters,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, he said that new levels of technological integration have \u201cmade it possible to streamline intelligence collection, planning, selecting targets and carrying out attacks far beyond Gaza and Lebanon,\u201d on a new level which was not previously possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

A fascinating aspect of Ze\u2019evi-Farkash is that he knew and commanded some current top IDF officials back when they were younger officers.<\/span>
\nOne story he told the Magazine was about Maj.-Gen. Herzi Halevi.<\/span>
\nHalevi eventually followed in Ze\u2019evi-Farkash\u2019s footsteps, serving as Military Intelligence chief from 2014 to 2018, served as OC Southern Command, will become IDF deputy chief of staff in the near future, and is viewed as a potential successor to Kohavi himself.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet back when Ze\u2019evi-Farkash was Military Intelligence chief, Halevi was still a mid-level lieutenant-colonel, at the time commander of the General Staff Reconnaissance Unit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking in metaphors to avoid revealing classified information, Ze\u2019evi-Farkash said, \u201cI won\u2019t forget the event. Halevi needed to go into a \u2018zoo\u2019 to find a \u2018specific old elephant,\u2019 to lift its left leg up and to see what was written on it.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Halevi came to Ze\u2019evi-Farkash to sign off on using additional military resources for the operation beyond what was standard and what Halevi could authorize on his own.<\/span><\/p>\n

He recounted that there was a debate between Halevi and an IDF technology expert about how many soldiers and how many ropes would need to be involved to lift what he called, with a flicker in his eye, the \u201celephant\u2019s leg.\u201d<\/span>
\nHalevi wanted to use a rope, and the technological expert suggested two soldiers. Ze\u2019evi-Farkash ruled in favor of the technological expert, despite Halevi\u2019s argument that he could not complete the mission with two soldiers.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, when Ze\u2019evi-Farkash arrived to attend a rehearsal of the operation, including a physical mock-up, he saw that Halevi had gone ahead with his single rope idea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze\u2019evi-Farkash seemed to travel back to that moment as he described when \u201chis eyes met Halevi\u2019s determined eyes, and I understood I couldn\u2019t harm his authority in front of his unit, but I also needed to stand up for the authority of the IDF intelligence chief.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The bottom line from the story is that Halevi is daring, confident and committed to the mission no matter what, and \u201chad a laser-like ability to accomplish unusual and incredible tasks…. I think he would be one of the best IDF chiefs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

If Halevi follows Kohavi, it would be two consecutive IDF intelligence chiefs ascending to the top job, a major trend reversal from the 2006-2019 period when all of the IDF chiefs had served as OC Northern Command.<\/span>
\nZe\u2019evi-Farkash said an IDF intelligence chief as head of the entire IDF makes a lot of sense because it is one of the only other positions where an individual must interface and learn about all of the arms and dynamics of Israel\u2019s armed forces.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, he added that the Military Intelligence chief gains rare experience interacting with the heads of the Mossad and the Shin Bet, as well as the prime minister himself.
\n<\/span>
\nAll of this is a reason to take Ze\u2019evi-Farkash\u2019s views seriously on the dynamic security issues confronting Israel with Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, normalization and the US. \uf03c<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ex-IDF intel. chief: Israel must continue covert ops in Iran YONAH JEREMY BOB Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Aharon Ze\u2019evi-Farkash believes that the Biden administration will not rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal before the June Iranian presidential election. AHARON ZE\u2019EVI-FARKASH served as chief of IDF intelligence from 2001-2006. \/ (photo credit: COURTESY AHARON ZE\u2019EVI-FARKASH) \u201cDon\u2019t worry, we are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[26,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84908"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84908"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84908\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84926,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84908\/revisions\/84926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.reunion68.se\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}