The Iranians are at the borders

AVI ISSACHAROFF

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In this Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2006 file photo, a Hezbollah fighter, who refused to be identified, uses binoculars to scan for Israeli forces’ positions, in the outskirts of the southern village of Aitaroun, close to the town of Bint Jbeil. (AP Photo / Mohammed Zaatari, File)

Eleven years have gone by since the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War, which began with the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. It ended 34 days later with a trumpet blast from Hezbollah, which had lost approximately 700 of its troops.

But those losses were a small thing in light of the deaths of 164 Israelis, which constituted part of “the God-given victory” — at least according to the enormous billboards that were placed throughout Lebanon to establish the narrative that many people there, and throughout the Middle East, believed.

Those were the glory days of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who portrayed himself as having faced down the strongest army in the region, striking the State of Israel. Nasrallah was the most admired Arab leader at the time, both within Lebanon and outside, and among Sunnis and Shi’ites alike.

He remains one of the most prominent leaders in the Middle East, but his status among the various Arab countries has declined drastically. Many people, including in Lebanon (except for his Shi’ite supporters), see Nasrallah as a puppet of Iran, rushing to obey the orders of his masters in Tehran. The Arab television networks that were so quick to embrace him following his “victory” over the Israelis, now excoriate him and accuse him and his associates of nothing less than crimes against humanity.

Nasrallah is the main reason for Hezbollah’s participation in the Syrian civil war. While there are quite a few benefits to this, there are disadvantages as well.

After the Islamic State terror group’s defeat in Iraq and the American military’s admission that it is operating in Raqqa, IS’s capital in Syria, Nasrallah has become a critically important part of the victors’ camp, and as such, he gets a share of the spoils.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah addresses supporters in Beirut, Lebanon, on November 3, 2014. (AFP/STR)

Although Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar Assad’s army have retaken large parts of Syria (with help from the Russians), the former is in no hurry to bring its troops back to Lebanon. This has broad significance. Hezbollah’s transitory military positions throughout Syria have become temporary, and the temporary outposts are in the process of becoming permanent, with soldiers’ barracks, prefabricated structures, and everything that indicates an established position or a transition to a permanent presence on the ground.

Nasrallah and his organization are turning Syria into Hezbollah’s backyard as part of Iran’s campaign to create a Shi’ite crescent between Tehran and the Mediterranean Sea. For Israel, this means that Hezbollah, together with Iran, will be able to set up a local Shi’ite army in Syria or on the Syrian Golan Heights — an army that will operate against Israeli targets without making Lebanon pay the price.

Even as decision-makers in Israel proclaim a policy that “Lebanon will pay” for any escalation by Hezbollah, the organization itself could try to draw the fire away from Lebanon and use Syria as the preparation ground for its terror attacks, allowing Hezbollah to have it both ways. The advantages do not end there, though: Hezbollah will have access to, and acquire ownership of, advanced weapons and intelligence formerly in the possession of the Syrian army. It will gain technological equipment, weapons that “violate the balance of power,” and pretty much everything else.

Still, belonging to the winning camp carries with it a heavy, and even a very heavy, price. This has to do not only with the loss of public popularity, but also with the fact that its public, the Shi’ites, must pay so dearly in blood for the saving of Assad. The number of fallen Hezbollah troops is estimated at 1,800 to 2,000. A Syrian journalist published photographs this week of two Lebanese teenagers, about 15 years old, who were killed in battle in Syria as they fought in Hezbollah’s ranks. Approximately 6,000 Hezbollah troops have been wounded.

Fighters of the Shiite Hezbollah terror group attend the funeral of a comrade who died in combat in Syria in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Hatta on March 18, 2017. (AFP Photo/Mahmoud Zayyat)

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