Yoav Limor
Five months into the current wave of terrorism, Israel is still trying to define what exactly we are facing and where it’s all going.
Some experts are convinced that this is a third intifada that comes in a different form than its predecessors — neither crowd-based, like the first, nor characterized by organized terrorism like the second. Something else, something new, which will take time to conceptualize and define but which might be around for a long time. Others believe that this is a temporary wave that started high and is continually dropping, and if Israel simply continues its stick-and-carrot activity and bolsters it by supplementary measures, it will be possible to bring terrorism back to “acceptable” levels.
Both camps are supported by a variety of information, assessments, and more than a few wishes. The truth is that no one knows how things will develop, mainly because the restraining factors are wearing thin disproportionally to the level of threat and challenge. A situation like this is inherently dangerous; it leaves too much to chance, to the next terrorist in line, whose success or thwarting will determine whether we see a drop or an escalation in terrorism.
Using smarts, not strength
A controversy rocked the country this week over remarks by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, who said in a meeting with high school students from Bat Yam that “[soldiers] don’t need to empty a magazine on a 13-year-old girl with scissors.” Responses were quick to come, as were analyses. Some people spoke without thinking, and certainly without having heard; had they listened to the full context of Eizenkot’s words, there would have been no need for all the talk.
Eizenkot (and he is not alone) is disturbed by the quick-draw atmosphere. The specific instance he mentioned might not have existed, but there have been others: Even if there were no IDF or police investigations, not every bullet fired was necessary. In some cases, it was possible to avoid killing the terrorists. This might not be good as far as calming the fury of the public goes, but given the fact that every terrorist attack — and certainly every death — creates imitators, more terrorists, every terrorist attack thwarted without killing will help stop the wave.
At the beginning of last week, a young Palestinian woman approached Checkpoint No. 160 in Hebron. After she set off the metal detector, she pulled out a knife and attacked the soldier who was facing her. He responded with precise fire, two shots, one to hand and one to her foot. The woman was lightly wounded. A glance at her Facebook page gave no indications of any intention to carry out a terrorist attack — there were only hearts and roses in honor of Valentine’s Day.
Nevertheless, she chose to die. When she was interrogated, she said that the evening before the attack her fiancé had left her. Her world collapsed around her. Like dozens of young Palestinians before her, she chose to funnel her personal frustration into murder and death. No one would have complained if the soldier had emptied his clip into her: She chose to commit a terrorist attack, and his life was at risk. She certainly meant to kill him, and it would have been legitimate for him to kill her first.
If that young woman had been killed, it’s probably that someone she knew — a brother, a friend, a neighbor — would have followed in her footsteps. Security forces are now trying to cut those links. If it’s not necessary to kill — don’t kill; if it’s possible to wait another second and aim at the foot and subdue the terrorist — then wait, so long as it doesn’t put anyone’s life in danger. That is exactly what the chief of staff meant.
At first, some soldiers also raised an eyebrow over that policy. They thought that she was putting lives in danger. The questions were over. Not because of what Eizenkot said, but because of the reality. Commanders devote some of their time to discussions, to explaining the connection between terrorists being killed and an uptick in terrorism, but invest the lion’s share of their time in finding solutions that will reduce the danger — placing concrete barriers here, a new checkpoint or electric fence there. Anything that will provide an indication, a window of time to clarify suspicions, a warning. These measures have already saved many lives, both Israelis and terrorists.
It can be argued that this policy is lax, that Arabs only understand strength, that only when they’re truly afraid and have paid a heavy price, will the current wave recede. We might eventually find ourselves there, but as of today no one in the decision-making echelon — from the prime minister and the defense minister to the chief of staff to the head of the Shin Bet security agency and the Israel Police, and including the field heads of several organizations — believes that this is the way to proceed. The opposite: Everyone is seeking to pacify, to decrease flashpoints, to reduce terrorists’ motivations, to locate changes before they take place.
The terrorist attack in Otniel is a good example: It marked the beginning of the wave of attacks committed by terrorists who breach Israeli communities. After it, terrorists carried out stabbings in Tekoa and in Beit Horon. Stabbing people in their homes isn’t like stabbing them at an intersection; home is a safe place. Penetrating a community shakes up the residents’ sense of safety. It’s like one of the terrorist tunnels in the Gaza periphery.
The security establishment responded late, but woke up quickly. Defending Israeli communities became a main goal. More security patrols, more roadblocks, and slightly more manpower are being invested there. This week, an additional budget of NIS 320 million ($82 million) was approved for different means of defense: some earmarked for the reservist battalions who have been deployed as backup in the field since the new year, and some for physical defenses ranging from fences to cameras and radars.
The challenge now is to identify the next breach. Some are well-known (Damascus Gate at the Old City of Jerusalem being the main one); and there were others that people thought had been stoppered off (such as Gush Etzion Junction, until the attack on Wednesday in which IDF reservist Staff Sgt. Eliav Gelman was killed.) With hundreds of thousands of Israelis and thousands of kilometers of roads [throughout Judea and Samaria], it’s next to impossible to know where the next attack will come from. In most cases, the terrorists don’t know ahead of time, either. The effort is to reduce contact, flashpoints, between Israelis and Palestinians
The Rami Levy supermarket branch in the Shaar Binyamin industrial zone, where off-duty Staff Sgt. Tuvia Yanai Weissman was murdered last week, is a good example. Not long ago, both Israelis and Palestinians shopped and worked there. Not anymore. Since the wave of riots began, Palestinians don’t work there anymore, and most of them no longer shop there, or at the chain’s branch at Gush Etzion Junction. They don’t feel at ease. Cynics will say they don’t have any reason to be there, anyway: due to the security situation, the supermarket no longer sells knives.
Who is the president of Palestine?
An Israeli who recently met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah and asked him to take action on a particular matter met with the response: “I can’t.” How is that possible, the Israeli wondered, since you’re the rais (president)? Abbas replied: “Me? [Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Maj. Gen. Yoav] Poli Mordechai is the Palestinian president. Talk to him.”
These remarks express the Palestinian frustration with the situation. The standstill, the lack of expectation, the cloudy future. Hamas is eating away at the PA; the Palestinian street is eating away at the PA; and Israel is eating away at the PA. The PA is afraid of Hamas and the Palestinian street, but exercising its rage against Israel. Poli Mordechai, whom Abbas spoke of, is the address: the PA expects him to solve its problems.
There is considerable hypocrisy in the Palestinian rage: to a large extent, it brought its fate upon itself though incitement, school curricula, underhand support for terrorists and open support for their families. It’s tempting to write that the PA is enjoying the situation; the current level of terrorist attacks (not too high, not too low) allows it the best of both worlds — encouraging terrorism and fighting it, keeping the Palestinian issue in the headlines but refraining from escalation. As far as Abbas is concerned, this can go on forever.
But that’s just it — it can’t. The fragile stitches holding Israeli-Palestinian relations together are slowing coming apart. Security coordination could wear down; the Tanzim [the armed wing of Abbas’ Fatah party] could join the fray; a large-scale terrorist attack will require Israel to reconsider the employment of 120,000 Palestinians who feed a total of 600,000 mouths. Mordechai, like the rest of the upper security echelon, is battling to prevent such a situation. The axiom is clear: A Palestinian who is working in Israel is less involved with terrorism.
Hebron Brigade commander Col. Yariv Ben-Ezra recently visited a Hebron factory. He says that a worker there earns 55 shekels ($14). That’s per day, not per hour. A worker doing the same job in Israel earns 400 to 500 shekels ($100 to $130) per day. Specialists (floor layers, plasterers) can bring home 600 to 700 shekels ($150 to $180) a day. It’s very tempting for Palestinians to work in Israel, and someone who has work doesn’t rush to commit terrorist attacks, because he has much more to lose.
Things you see from Hebron
Ben-Ezra is one of the IDF’s leading field commanders. He started out in the Duvdevan special operations unit; served in various posts in the Israeli Air Force’s Shaldag commando unit; was a battalion commander in the Nahal Brigade; and returned to Duvdevan as head of the unit before being assigned to Hebron. He grew up on a moshav and now lives on a kibbutz — salt of the earth. No one can call him a coward, which is precisely why anyone who floats slogans and tosses around worthless magic solutions is welcome to come to Hebron and listen to him.
Serving in Judea and Samaria forces IDF commanders to take initiative. On the down side, they have too many civil matters to deal with, from finding answers about educational and religious matters to issuing work permits. On the up side, they can look beyond the sights of a gun and see the big picture.
Ben-Ezra is in the hardest place of all. Hebron attracts the most radicalized Palestinians and the most extremist Jews: a tough, poor, religious city. In this recent wave, 74% of the attacks have taken place in Judea and Samaria and 40% of those in Hebron. Out of the 219 terrorists who have carried out or tried to carry out attacks (as of the start of this week), 69 came from the Hebron area. (To continue the list, 43 were from Ramallah; 36 from east Jerusalem, 21 from Jenin, 15 each from Bethlehem and Nablus, 11 from Tulkarem/Qalqilya, as well as an additional nine Israeli Arabs.) If we add Hamas’ permanent, disturbing presence in the city, the constant volatility is clear.
Ben-Ezra speaks openly about his successes and his failures. The negative: the residents’ sense of security. The fact is they are afraid in their homes and on the streets. Something very fundamental has been undermined, and all the security forces and extra manpower can’t stabilize it. The positive: the drop in the number of incidents. The dry figures are different from the public’s sense of things — every parameter indicates a decrease. In October 2015 there were 27 attempted stabbings, in November there were 15, in December there were 12, and in January there were 11. Since the beginning of February there have been five. Shootings and car ramming attacks have seen a similar downswing.
A political move that will get rid of clashes
The most dramatic number applies to violent mass disturbances. There are almost no mass riots in Judea and Samaria anymore. The hundreds who would gather at the start of the wave of terrorism have dwindled to a few dozen, a far cry from the crowds of thousands of the first and second intifadas.
These numbers can be encouraging. They indicate both weariness and pragmatism on the Palestinian side, as well as increasing operational efficiency by Israel. Ben-Ezra prefers to view them as points on a bigger graph: even if the number of attacks decreases, without supplementary measures it will eventually rise again. The entire defense apparatus shares that stance. The expectation is for a political move that will get rid of violent clashes and, unfortunately, a major economic move that will give Palestinians (particularly aged 18-40, among whom there is a high rate of unemployment) hope and a horizon.
In the absence of those, the main concern is over the return of an armed intifada. There is no lack of weapons in Judea and Samaria, both legal (in the hands of the PA security forces) and illegal. The prices are sky-high: Carl Gustav rifles cost 2,500 to 3,500 shekels ($640 to $900) depending on the model, while Kalashnikovs and M16s cost 40,000 to 60,000 shekels ($10,000 to $15,000). The plan to allow combat soldiers to take their weapons with them on leave, a response to Yanai Weissman’s murder, might prevent terrorist attacks, but on the downside could provide terrorists in Judea and Samaria and the Israeli underworld with more weapons as a result of being lost or stolen from soldiers and resold to criminals.
Hamas is investing a great deal of effort in procuring weapons as part of its unceasing attempts to establish a terrorist infrastructure that will execute mass terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria and outside it. Hebron is currently free from fugitives, but that’s deceptive: Many past terrorist attacks were perpetrated by people who slipped underneath the radar. Ben-Ezra says that that’s his main worry: a large-scale terrorist attack that will launch from Hebron and change the picture.
There are grounds for this fear. In a situation that mirrors the kidnapping of three teens in June 2014 that lead to Operation Protective Edge against Hamas in Gaza, a terrorist attack that traced back to Hebron, or somewhere else, could set in motion a series of events that could lead Israel into a broad-scale conflict in Judea and Samaria and a war in Gaza. So Ben-Ezra’s main focus, and that of his superiors, is to throw water on the flames, to soothe, to use nearly any means to prevent such a conflict. That might not suit the Facebook generation or certain headline-hungry politicians, but it’s certainly the best option right now.
Meanwhile, in a parallel universe
The same day that the politicians jumped down the chief of staff’s throat for his remark about “a girl with scissors,” foreign sources claimed that the Israeli Air Force had carried out a major airstrike in Syria against warehouses loaded with weapons destined for Hezbollah. Like previous ones, if in fact they happened, this strike passed quietly, under the radar, without responses or retaliatory attacks.
In the Facebook universe, Eizenkot ended the week in the minus column; in the real world, Israel finished the week at an advantage.
Szukam Raju. Wycinanki Moniki Krajewskiej w Państwowym Muzeum Etnograficznym w Warszawie 
Czasem wplatam w wycinankę ulubione motywy z płaskorzeźb na macewach i nieistniejących drewnianych synagog, działa rąk i wyobraźni z małych miasteczek, które poprzez swą „świętą pracę” dawały własny wyraz wizji świata zakorzenionej w Biblii, naukach rabinów i żydowskich obyczajach ludowych. Chciałabym też umieć wyrazić osadzenie – przez tyle wieków – żydowskiego życia w polskich realiach, klimacie, krajobrazie. Wtedy palma sąsiaduje z paprocią, a lampki chanukowe widać przez ośnieżone szyby. Co mnie łączy z tradycją? Chyba to, że uprawianie tej sztuki to jeden ze sposobów uczestniczenia w życiu społeczności. Śluby, narodziny, bar micwy i bat micwy (czasem moich uczniów) inspirują do wycinanek związanych z konkretnymi osobami, do szukania w tekstach modlitw i pieśni wersetów pasujących do życia kogoś z przyjaciół. Mizrach na wschodnią ścianę czy ketuba-dokument ślubny to dla mnie przede wszystkim część tradycji religijnej, a nie obiekt do galerii.
