Jonathan S. Tobin
The rout of the GOP by a party now dominated by “progressive” and antisemitic foes of the Jewish state will impact the alliance as well as American Jewish life for the worse.
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed speaks to his supporters at his last rally at the Majestic Theater on Nov. 2, 2026, in Detroit. Credit: Salwan Georges/Getty Images.
It was a big night for the Democrats and a very, very bad night for U.S. President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. But amid the wreckage left by the blue wave that flipped control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, members of the GOP aren’t the only big losers. Supporters of the U.S.-Israel alliance and those who worry about the surge of antisemitism that has swept across the globe over the past three years should be equally worried about the implications of the Democrats’ midterm victory.
The consequences of the Democrats’ return to power on Capitol Hill will be primarily directed at the Trump administration. But whatever that will mean for Trump’s ability to govern effectively in his final two years in office, control of Congress by a party that is now largely dominated by its intersectional left-wing will have a serious impact on the U.S.-Israel relationship as well as the battle against Jew-hatred.
Jews in denial
That will not be the message we hear from most Jewish Democrats. They will point to the exit polls that show Democrats winning their usual two-thirds of the Jewish vote, though we don’t know for sure yet whether that was also true in states like Michigan where their candidate, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, is an open antisemite.
They will also say that the leadership of the Democratic Party in both the House and Senate will remain in the hands of relative moderates like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) who both speak of themselves as supporters of Israel. Though, especially in the case of Schumer, his longtime pose as the shomer or “guardian” of Israel in Congress has been largely conditional with the senator backing up efforts by his fellow Democrats to attack the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hamstring its efforts to defeat Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran and even downplaying the threat of antisemitism.
But as we saw throughout 2026, the moderates are no longer in control of the Democratic Party, especially where Israel is concerned.
As a result of primary wins across the nation, the composition of both the House and Senate Democratic caucuses has been materially altered. Progressives, including members of the Democratic Socialists of America and their left-wing allies will now be sitting in seats that were once held by traditional liberals.
Progressives dominate
That doesn’t just mean that the ranks of the far-left congressional “Squad,” which had already grown since its first four members were elected in 2018, will be increased. The swing to the left is being felt across the country amid a midterm election where Democrats made gains at every level of government.
What will this mean?
During the campaign, the primary theme of the Democrats largely centered on the economy. The rise in gas prices as a result of the ongoing conflict with Iran has hit voters across the board, but most of the pain is felt by those working-class voters who largely supported Trump and the GOP in 2024. Their defection to the Democrats seems to have gone well beyond the usual backlash against the party in power two years after it won the presidency and Congress.
But while dissatisfaction with the economy as well as a sense that Trump had not improved the lives of voters during the past two years may have won them the midterms, the winners will have other priorities once they are sworn into office in January.
As the primaries demonstrated, the two issues that are the main motivating factors for the party’s activists and their candidates are only tangentially connected to what enabled them to win. The organizing principles of the Democratic Party and its base are now opposition to enforcement of immigration laws and hostility towards Israel.
Trump has effectively ended the flood of millions of illegal immigrants that entered the United States during the Biden administration. That will likely remain the case even with a Democratic Congress. But we can expect them to try to use their control of Congress and government funding to end the deportations of illegals.
And it’s equally true that their priority will be to confront Trump.
That will mean attempts at impeachment of the president and members of his cabinet that will likely fail. But it will tie the administration up in knots, as was the case during the Democrats’ efforts to undermine Trump during the last two years of his first term. Even more important, control of congressional committees will give the ability to launch investigations of every department as well as members of the president’s family. Yet whether any of it leads to any tangible consequences for those put in their crosshairs, it will materially influence Trump’s ability to govern effectively or get anything done.
Targeting Israel
But along with that, the large number of anti-Israel Democrats elected by voters who have accepted lies about the war in Gaza will be trying to sever the relationship with Israel.
Democrats who were long considered “moderates” or even pro-Israel have been signaling over the course of the last year that they can no longer be relied upon to back a Jewish state under assault by Iran and its terrorist proxies. The reason is that they can read the polls that indicate those who identify as Democrats have turned upon Israel as well as the primary results that are sending anti-Israel leftists to Washington.
Rather than try to resist the base of their party and find themselves out of power, figures like Schumer are going along with the progressives.
During the campaign, that meant backing an open antisemite like El-Sayed. They feared being targeted by angry leftists. And now that the Michigan Democrat with links to the Muslim Brotherhood appears poised to join Schumer on the Senate floor while others with similar views enter the House, the same dynamic will be in play.
We already know that will lead to measures that will fundamentally alter the alliance with the Jewish state. That will mean sanctions on Israelis in Judea and Samaria—an effort that will be driven by acceptance of the false narrative about “settler violence.”
Military aid to Israel will also be targeted by the Democrats.
Trump may have thought he could forestall such efforts by announcing this week that the aid will now wind down by the end of the year and be replaced with a partnership rooted in joint efforts to research and develop weaponry.
In the long run, that is, as Netanyahu has actually been saying for decades, exactly what Israel needs. Doing so will enable the Jewish state to be less dependent on the United States and remove a major talking point employed by Israel-bashers. That’s in spite of the fact that almost all of it was spent in the United States and was as much of an aid package for American arms manufacturers as the Israelis. It’s also true that the amount spent on assistance to Israel is actually dwarfed by the aid that Europe gets via American participation in NATO that is part of the Pentagon budget rather than called “aid.”
Still, making this change abruptly rather than gradually, as Israelis who desire this shift wanted, will create a strain on their military at a time of war when it is already hard-pressed.
Mainstreaming antisemitism
What Trump and whoever winds up leading the next Israeli government need to realize is that the anti-Israel progressives are not really focused so much on ending aid so much as they are interested in severing the relationship altogether.
For one thing, that will likely mean efforts to stop the transition from aid to partnership. But the impact of congressional majorities that are overwhelmingly hostile to Israel will transcend the ongoing debate about the aid package.
It’s been clear for years that the Democrats have not only rejected any idea of a bipartisan consensus about the alliance but have been transitioning to being an anti-Israel party. But the 2026 results have produced more than just majorities that don’t want to aid Israel’s efforts to defend itself.
With the victories of figures like El-Sayed and others who were willing to spread blood libels about Israel committing “genocide” in Gaza and who sought to anathematize the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby, we’ve gone well beyond arguments about military assistance.
A public square in which the sort of antisemitism that they spout is normalized is one that can fundamentally change the way that Jews interact with society. El-Sayed’s focus on AIPAC, which was echoed in other campaigns around the country, employed classic tropes of Jew-hatred. This will make it even harder for the dwindling numbers of pro-Israel Democrats to be heard or influence policy.
But it will also impact Republicans.
The majority of Republicans remain supportive of Israel and opposed to the left’s antisemitism that is driven by their acceptance of the toxic doctrines of the left about race such as critical race theory, intersectionality and settler-colonialism.
It won’t only be the antisemitic extremists of the far right who are influenced by podcasters like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens who will be speaking of the conflict with Iran as being the primary reason for the GOP defeat. There were other causes for the Republican catastrophe including Trump’s failure to adequately explain his decision to the American people, choosing terrible candidates in several states and general disillusionment with the administration.
But rather than just blaming Trump for his correct decision to go to war against an Islamist regime that is a threat to America, some will likely blame it on Israel.
That will likely undermine Republican efforts to resist the Democrats’ push to target the Jewish state. It will also make it more difficult for them to join in efforts to push back against a tsunami of antisemitism that is making itself felt in every sector of society including academia, popular culture and the arts, as Trump has attempted to do.
The pendulum swings
Nothing is permanent in politics and the Democrats celebrating now should remember that. In the 21st century, the two parties have exchanged control of both Capitol Hill and the White House with increasing frequency. There is no telling now which side will be in a better position to win in 2028. The more the currently triumphant Democrats overplay their hand with their harassment of Trump and even their measures against Israel, the less likely it will be that they will win the presidency, especially if they nominate one of the increasingly dominant progressives who will be running.
The one thing that is certain is that the pendulum of American politics is always swinging.
Some Jewish liberals who appear deaf, dumb and blind to the way they are being marginalized along with the rest of the community may try to deny this or focus solely on their hatred for Trump. But there can be no disguising the fact that the midterms have delivered a devastating blow to supporters of Israel and a victory to those who wish to eradicate the Jewish state. That will make it all the more necessary for decent persons, whether Republican or Democrat, Jewish or non-Jewish, to redouble their efforts to fight back against the growing volume of antisemitic invective that has insinuated itself into so much of public discourse.
Jonathan S. Tobin is editor-in-chief of the Jewish News Syndicate, a senior contributor for The Federalist, a columnist for Newsweek and a contributor to many other publications. He covers the American political scene, foreign policy, the U.S.-Israel relationship, Middle East diplomacy, the Jewish world and the arts. He hosts the JNS “Think Twice” podcast, both the weekly video program and the “Jonathan Tobin Daily” program, which are available on all major audio platforms and YouTube. Previously, he was executive editor, then senior online editor and chief political blogger, for Commentary magazine. Before that, he was editor-in-chief of The Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia and editor of the Connecticut Jewish Ledger. He has won more than 60 awards for commentary, art criticism and other writing. He appears regularly on television, commenting on politics and foreign policy. Born in New York City, he studied history at Columbia University.