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Israel Braces for Hostile US Congress After Democratic Midterm Sweep; Opposition Blames Netanyahu

Debbie Weiss

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Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to speak to the media after voting at a polling station in Jerusalem on Oct. 27, 2026, on the day of Israel’s legislative election. Photo: JEWEL SAMAD/Pool via REUTERS

Israel faces the prospect of a far more hostile US Congress after Democrats swept Tuesday’s midterm elections, raising concerns in Israel over the future of American military assistance and dealing a major blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hopes of renewed US military action against Iran. 

The war against Iran was a major election issue, with rising fuel prices and mounting economic costs fueling voter discontent. President Donald Trump acknowledged Wednesday that the conflict had played a part in his party’s defeat but defended his decision to launch the joint US-Israeli campaign. 

Vice President JD Vance also blamed the campaign against Iran for the Republican defeat, saying “the reason we lost is the war.” He also cited dissatisfaction with America’s relationship with Israel as one of four major reasons the Democrats won.

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

Israeli opposition leaders said the midterm results exposed Netanyahu’s failure to maintain bipartisan support for Israel in Washington and warned a government with him as a prime minister would lead to international sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and confrontation with the US.

Yair Golan, chairman of Israel’s center-left Democrats party and a former deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said the results demonstrated how “toxic” Netanyahu has become among both Democrats and Republicans, arguing his continued rule could put Israel “on a path toward international sanctions, international isolation, and a confrontation with the US, our friend and most important ally.”

Netanyahu, who is fighting to keep his own seat following an inconclusive national election last week, is “dangerous to Israel,” Golan wrote on X.

“We have no time to waste. We must form a government of change now,” he added.

Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, currently the opposition leader and leader of the centrist B’Yachad party, said the American election results had effectively ruled out any prospect of his bloc forming a national unity government under Netanyahu, warning that his continued leadership would “endanger Israel’s security and democracy and crush us internationally.”

Gilad Kariv, a lawmaker from the Democrats party, echoed Golan’s remarks, accusing Netanyahu of having “destroyed relations with the Democratic Party and with half of the Republican Party.”

“The dramatic blue wave in the US makes one thing unequivocally clear: The continued rule of Netanyahu, alongside the annexationist policies championed by Smotrich, will severely damage the existential interests of the State of Israel,” Kariv said, referring to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

“Netanyahu must vacate the Prime Minister’s Office, and do so quickly,” he said.

Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, leaving it short of the 61 needed for a majority. The Zionist opposition parties won 48 seats — also not enough to form a government — while Arab parties secured 19.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog received the official election results on Wednesday and began consultations with political parties before deciding whom to task with forming the next government. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister, while former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, is seeking to assemble an alternative coalition.

As Americans went to the polls on Tuesday, Trump announced in an interview with Fox News that he and Netanyahu had agreed to end approximately $4 billion in annual US assistance to Israel by the end of 2026.

“We were giving them $4 billion. We are, but it gets cut off at the end of the year,” Trump said, arguing that Israel no longer needed the money.

Trump said Netanyahu had initiated the proposal and acknowledged that continued financial assistance to Israel had become a political liability for Republicans.

Eisenkot slammed the move, telling Israel’s Channel 13 that the defense establishment’s learning of a major change in US-Israel relations through the media showed Netanyahu’s conduct posed a “real danger.”

“Netanyahu must provide answers to the citizens of Israel this very evening,” he said. 

Golan also criticized the announcement, warning that Israel needed to replenish its offensive weapons stockpiles and restore air defense capabilities depleted during the prolonged fighting.

“A responsible prime minister would be fighting to increase American assistance, not eliminate it,” he said, according to Ynet.

The midterm results also included a number of victories by candidates strongly critical of Israel, notably Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan to become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.

El-Sayed, who has campaigned against US military assistance to Israel and accused the country of genocide in Gaza, reiterated his position in his victory speech.

“We want our taxes spent here, for schools here, and healthcare here, and infrastructure here. We don’t want our money sent to do apartheid, or genocide, or war,” he said.

El-Sayed also mocked the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC over its unsuccessful spending against him.”Thank you for giving me the opportunity to beat you twice,” he said.

Ahead of the election, Udi Sommer, a political science professor at Tel Aviv University and head of its Barak Leadership Center, warned that the incoming Congress could be the most hostile to Israel in American history.

“We’re going to hear members of Congress say vile and hateful things about Israel that, even in our wildest imagination three years ago, we never dreamed would be said about Israel from the floor of Congress,” Sommer told Channel 12.

He warned that a Democratic victory could give lawmakers greater leverage over Israel through congressional hearings, oversight, and budgetary measures, although the president retains primary authority over US foreign policy.

Netanyahu, who received Trump’s explicit endorsement ahead of Israel’s general election, had not publicly commented on the Democratic victory as of Wednesday afternoon.

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