Turkey Accuses Israel of Trying to Block Its Expanding Regional Ambitions, Warns of Growing Confrontation
Ailin Vilches Arguello
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a meeting at his ruling AK Party (AKP) in Ankara, Turkey, Oct. 7, 2026. Photo: Mustafa Kamaci/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS
As Turkey moves to expand its influence across the Middle East and Africa, forging closer ties with governments from Syria and Lebanon to Iran and the Gulf states, Ankara’s intelligence establishment is accusing Israel of mounting an increasingly aggressive effort to curb Turkish ambitions and prevent the country from emerging as a dominant regional power.
According to a new report by Turkey’s National Intelligence Academy (MIA), the state-run research and training arm affiliated with the country’s intelligence apparatus, Israel’s regional policies pose a direct challenge to Ankara’s strategic interests, particularly as Turkey seeks to expand its diplomatic, military, and economic footprint across the Middle East and beyond.
First reported by Nordic Monitor, a news site run by the Stockholm-based Nordic Research and Monitoring Network, the 82-page Turkish report accuses Israel of weakening neighboring countries’ military capabilities and preventing the rise of strong governments aligned with Ankara in order to preserve its regional influence and strategic advantage.
More specifically, the report portrays Israel as benefiting from political instability, weak central governments, and ethnic and sectarian divisions that leave neighboring countries vulnerable to foreign interference.
The new report by MIA, a higher education institution under the country’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT), reflects growing Turkish anxiety over Israel’s military, diplomatic, and security activities at a time when Ankara is seeking to reshape its position in a rapidly changing Middle East.
From its expanding relationship with Syria’s new leadership to its security cooperation with Somalia and growing engagement with Gulf capitals, Turkey is increasingly positioning itself as an indispensable player in regional affairs.
For Turkish intelligence officials, Israel’s growing presence in these same strategic arenas signals an intensifying geopolitical contest over military alliances, maritime access, energy corridors, ethnic divisions, and competing regional security arrangements.
At the center of Ankara’s concerns is the prospect that Israel could use its military superiority and growing network of partnerships to restrict Turkey’s room for maneuver. The report argues that Jerusalem ultimately wants to push Turkey into a defensive posture, forcing it to concentrate on domestic security threats rather than expanding its political and military influence beyond its borders.
Turkish officials point to Syria as a key front in the growing regional rivalry, arguing that Israel’s efforts to prevent the reconstruction of the Syrian military also serve to undermine Ankara’s ambitions to establish a lasting strategic foothold in Damascus and shape the country’s postwar future.
The report also links Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon to what it describes as a wider effort to establish a lasting sphere of intervention across the region, warning that continued operations could leave neighboring countries exposed to sustained military pressure.
In response, intelligence officials recommend that Ankara strengthen regional governments and develop security arrangements to reduce opportunities for what they describe as foreign military intervention.
The rivalry between Ankara and Jerusalem is increasingly playing out beyond the Middle East, with the Horn of Africa emerging as another strategic focal point.
Turkish officials have identified Somalia and the wider region as an increasingly important area of geopolitical competition, particularly as both countries seek to expand their influence around the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state in 2025, making it the first country to do so since the breakaway territory declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has become a major source of tension between Ankara and Jerusalem.
Turkey strongly opposed the decision, calling it interference in Somalia’s internal affairs and a violation of its territorial integrity.
But the decision carries particular weight for Ankara, which has spent years building a close partnership with Mogadishu through military training, security assistance, and economic investment, including the operation of a major military training base in the Somali capital.
For Turkish intelligence officials, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland goes beyond a diplomatic dispute and reflects a broader struggle for influence over one of the world’s most strategically important maritime regions.
Located along the Gulf of Aden, near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Somaliland sits close to a vital shipping corridor connecting the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, through which significant volumes of global trade and energy supplies pass.
The report warns that Israel could use its ties with Somaliland to build a stronger military and maritime foothold in the region, framing its presence as an effort to protect international shipping and secure vital trade routes.
With Turkey already deeply involved in Somalia’s security, the expanding activities of both countries around the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea are bringing their strategic interests into direct competition.
A similar pattern is emerging in the eastern Mediterranean. Intelligence officials characterize Israel’s expanding defense, energy, and political cooperation with Greece and Cyprus as an attempt to strategically surround Turkey, restrict its access to regional partnerships, and limit Ankara’s influence over the Mediterranean’s energy and security arrangements.
Turkey’s expanding network of regional partnerships and growing diplomatic and security footprint are increasingly reshaping the balance of power, opening new avenues for cooperation while intensifying competition with Israel and other countries wary of Ankara’s growing influence.
Rather than calling for Turkey to establish a new regional order under its own dominance, the assessment urges Ankara to pursue a more flexible approach to security cooperation, deepening ties with Gulf countries, Pakistan, Egypt, and Iraq without compromising its longstanding partnerships with NATO, the United States, and Europe.
The report’s central recommendation is to prevent Israeli military and technological capabilities from becoming the indispensable foundation of regional security. For Ankara, allowing Israel to establish that position would risk leaving Turkey with fewer strategic partners, less influence over its neighboring countries, and a diminished ability to shape the region’s future.