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Israel Prepares for Possible Return to War in Gaza as Ceasefire Talks Stall, Hamas Rejects Disarmament

Ailin Vilches Arguello

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Israeli soldier on guard in Gaza, February 2026. Photo: Jonathan Sacerdoti / The Algemeiner

As the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas continues to reject disarmament and further stalls progress on the US-backed Gaza ceasefire deal, Israeli officials are weighing contingency plans for a renewed military campaign should negotiations collapse entirely.

According to multiple media reports, the Israel Defense Forces believes the current negotiations are unlikely to result in either Hamas’s disarmament or the full demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, warning that the terrorist group is exploiting the diplomatic pause to rebuild its capabilities, consolidate control, and further entrench its governance in Gaza.

“Hamas is deliberately dragging its feet. It is exploiting attention on Iran and Lebanon and, in the meantime, is entrenching itself in the Gaza Strip — reasserting control over the territory, establishing governance structures, and rebuilding its military capabilities,” a military source told the Israeli news outlet Walla.

“As things stand, there are two possibilities: a US declaration that the negotiations have reached a deadlock and a return to fighting, or Washington pushing a partial, ‘perforated’ agreement on Israel that would significantly undermine our security interests and erode the operational gains achieved so far,” he continued.

As regional tensions continue to mount, Maj. Gen. Yaniv, commander of the IDF Southern Command, on Wednesday presented Israel’s political leadership with a new operational plan pushing the military to brace for a potential return to combat and initiate a wide-ranging reassessment of its ground maneuver strategy and operational approach.

For months now, the US-led Board of Peace has been conducting parallel negotiations with Israel and Hamas, attempting to tie the large-scale reconstruction of the war-torn enclave to the complete dismantling of the terror group’s weapons arsenal.

However, after continued failed attempts to reach an agreement, the Board of Peace will not hold Israel to the terms of last year’s ceasefire any longer if Hamas again rejects the proposed disarmament framework, according to a document obtained by The Times of Israel.

The board’s High Representative for Gaza Nickolay Mladenov has previously warned that Hamas’s refusal to disarm could trigger a resumption of the war. But now, the official is reportedly signaling that Israel would not be expected to halt military operations or guarantee humanitarian access to Gaza if the ceasefire framework collapses.

Hamas has consistently refused to relinquish its weapons, insisting that Israel must first fully comply with phase one of the ceasefire — including expanded humanitarian aid deliveries, full reopening of the Rafah crossing, and withdrawal of Israeli forces to the agreed Yellow Line — before any disarmament process can proceed.

For its part, Israel has warned that the Islamist group must fully disarm for the second phase of the ceasefire to move forward, pointing to tens of thousands of rifles and an active network of underground tunnels still under the terrorist group’s control.

If Hamas does not give up its weapons, Israeli officials have vowed not to withdraw troops from Gaza any further or approve any rebuilding efforts, effectively stalling the ceasefire agreement.

Under the ceasefire, the Israeli military currently controls over 50 percent of Gaza, while Hamas remains entrenched in the nearly half of Gazan territory it still controls, where the vast majority of the population lives.

In its latest counterproposal, the terrorist group said that any transfer of its weapons would only be possible as part of a wider process leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

As the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement remains stalled, Israeli officials have warned that Hamas is quietly exploiting the pause in fighting to tighten its control over civilian life while simultaneously rebuilding its military capabilities behind the scenes.

Last month, local elections saw the Palestinian Authority (PA) record notable gains, with results appearing strong on the surface. However, experts warn the outcome actually reinforced Hamas’s political theater, projecting an image of shifting authority while the group effectively maintains its control on the ground.

According to a report by Israel’s Channel 14, although newly elected municipal figures are formally affiliated with Fatah, the party of PA President Mahmoud Abbas, the presence of Hamas-linked representatives still signals the group’s continued political penetration at the local level.

Beyond official political appointments, Hamas-linked personnel are widely believed to remain embedded within municipal administrative structures, enabling the group to maintain effective control over day-to-day governance away from public view.

At the same time, through checkpoints, strict regulation of goods, and control over key public institutions, including hospitals, the Palestinian terrorist group has been quietly reestablishing its civilian governance structures across the war-torn enclave, with its authority still visibly enforced on the ground.

Hamas has also been reactivating internal security mechanisms to enforce day-to-day order, while conducting extensive intelligence operations aimed at identifying alleged collaborators with Israel and suppressing any opposition.

In an effort to reassert control and shore up its weakened position, the group has launched a violent internal campaign against armed militias and local gangs, targeting those it labels “lawbreakers and collaborators,” with the crackdown escalating into widespread clashes and violence as Hamas members move to seize weapons and eliminate remaining pockets of resistance.

Even after more than two years of war, the group is also rebuilding its military capabilities, including recruiting new operatives, conducting field and command-level training, restoring intelligence and surveillance networks, and reconstructing underground tunnel systems and weapons stockpiles.

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