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Data scientist predicts Israeli Covid peak may end soon

Data scientist predicts Israeli Covid peak may end soon

Abigail Klein Leichman


BGU Prof. Mark Last: Herd immunity is close ‘but it is important not to relax our restrictions or get overconfident.’

Prof. Mark Last, director of Ben-Gurion University’s Data Science Research Center. Photo by Dani Machlis/BGU

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev data scientist Prof. Mark Last says a further lockdown is not necessary in Israel if current restrictions are maintained and there are no unusual spreading events.

Last’s prediction is based on his analysis of available data regarding confirmed Israeli Covid-19 cases and deaths.

“If we maintain the current restrictions, then my model predicts that we are at the end of this peak, which should tail off at the end of August or the beginning of September,” he said at the online AIME 2020: International Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Medicine on August 26.

“Moreover, according to my calculations, we need 1.16 million people with antibodies in order to achieve herd immunity and we are very close to that number. Initial serological tests indicate the ratio of confirmed cases to actual cases is about 1 to 10. Using those numbers, we now have slightly above one million people with antibodies in Israel.”

Last said that unless some event such as the return to school causes another outbreak, the infection rate will start dropping.
“While another lockdown would certainly reduce infection rates, there is no need at the present time since social and physical distancing is working to lower infection rates,” he added.

Last directs BGU’s Data Science Research Center and is a member of the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering. He has been analyzing health data for 20 years.

He said Israel’s coronavirus situation is comparable to Italy, Greece and Sweden.

Last has not analyzed data from the UK or North America. He told ISRAEL21c that such an analysis would have to be done on a state or city level in the United States. “It’s a big country so we can’t analyze the overall numbers there as we can in Israel,” he said.

In Israel, “our health system has managed to keep the percentage of deaths from Covid-19 to under 1% out of the total number of confirmed cases Other countries had rates as high as 16% (Italy) and 14% (Sweden) at the beginning of the epidemic and have recently pushed them to around 3%,” Last said.

“We are heading in the right direction, but it is important not to relax our restrictions or get overconfident,” he concluded.


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News From Israel- Sept 2, 2020

News From Israel- Sept 2, 2020

ILTV Israel News


  • A tense exchange in the West Bank… as a Palestinian suspect rams his car into Israeli security forces…
  • Meanwhile… Pallywood strikes again – ILTV takes a deeper look at the battle over the narrative of the Israel-Palestinian conflict…
  • And finally… enter the mind of your baby with the help of an amazing new Israeli device.

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Israel’s media needs to regain a sense of objectivity – opinion

Israel’s media needs to regain a sense of objectivity – opinion

YISRAEL MEDAD, ELI POLLAK


The left wing is always “right;” the right wing primitive, abrasive and wrong.

Israeli journalist Kalman Liebskind (R) attends a conference organized by “Makor Rishon” and the Israeli Democracy Institute at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem, March 11, 2018 / (photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH 90)

The media likes to claim they are the main bulwark protecting our democracy from our governing institutions. Journalists see themselves as heroes as they “speak truth to power,” fearlessly seeking out the foibles, the irregularities and even the crimes of those whose job it is to govern.

The past few months, Kalman Liebskind, arguably the country’s outstanding investigative reporter, has been publishing a series of columns in Maariv on what appears to be an unchecked loophole whereby those possessing unlimited institutional power can, without oversight, make their own rules. He was joined later by Channel 11’s Tsach Shpitsen who also began reporting on the same issue.

As a result, the Likud and right-wing MKs sought last week in the Knesset to establish a commission of inquiry but the move was torpedoed. And how did the rest of the media respond? They mostly criticized the Likud.
Why? Because the institution involved was the Supreme Court.

The justices, oddly enough, are not subject to the normal procedure imposed upon any other official here, whether elected, appointed or employed. Conflict of interest is something to be avoided and all must report conflicts of interest and the consequences are decided by the legal authorities. But no one imposes this procedure on judges. They decide for themselves what is and what a conflict of interest isn’t.

Is this proper? Certainly not. The suggested commission of inquiry was to deal with precisely this lacuna. Someone who protects democracy but defends the justices has some explaining to do. Nevertheless, most assuredly because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is perceived as an enemy of the court, the justices’ shenanigans and improper behavior are to be overlooked.

How many times has any one of us found ourselves disagreeing with something said on the radio or television screen so much that we not only grimaced, not only drew our friend’s attention to it, not only began to argue with the statement but even yelled at the person who uttered the inanity we just heard? We, too, admit have done so. On Tuesday evening, June 23, dozens of people discovered that they could do precisely that but face-to-face with a media personality standing in front of them.

At “The People Are The Sovereign” rally sponsored by the Im Tirzu group, which called to “End the High Court’s Dictatorship”, Amnon Abramovich, accompanied by Amit Segal, both of Channel 12, showed up to “observe” the on goings. Abramovich was verbally assaulted. Called “traitor” and “fifth columnist,” the police felt he needed an escort to make his exit. President Reuven Rivlin felt it necessary to criticize the reaction, declaring that “no one should feel threatened due to his political position”. We note that when former MK Yehudah Glick (Likud) was physically beaten and needed hospital care, the president did not feel the need to comment on it publicly, perhaps because Arabs were the assailants.

Abramovich, as we have often detailed in our columns, has over the years been sharp-tongued and does not find it necessary to always stick to the truth. Among his darts are “Blue and White is just like the Likud, but without criminals with charge sheets,” “Likudniks are natives,” employing the words of the kaddish prayer for the dead in expectation for the fall of Netanyahu, commenting in 1999 that Netanyahu will be but a “footnote” in Israel’s history, and in 2008, we of Israel’s Media Watch complained when he said that in voting for Likud candidates Gila Gamliel, Ayoub Kara and Sagiv Assulin, one would be “putting people in the Knesset one wouldn’t even let into one’s house,” just one example of his racism.

The list of his outrageous epithets is quite long and we wonder what did he expect would happen that evening. True, the scene was discomforting. True, Ecclesiastes teaches us that “the words of the wise are listened to when made gently.” Shouting, although a staple of our media, does not convince people and is not wise and with the media’s assistance, the issue became an “item.” And just in time for Rina Matsliah.

Matsliah found herself in hot water, once again. After being warned about her referring to Likud supporters as a “blind herd” and her blaming haredim (ultra-Orthodox) for being almost the only coronavirus victims, she was suspended for expressing her personal opinion on Netanyahu. During the Meet the Press program she hosted on Channel 12 on Saturday evening, June 20, she announced, without compunction, that “Netanyahu’s supporters are being interviewed and are saying: ‘even if he rapes my daughter, I’ll still vote for him.’”

It turns out that in an April 20, 2016, article in Globes, novelist Etgar Karet related an incident in which he claimed that he was told by a taxi driver that “if Bibi would enter my house through the window at night and rape my daughter, I’d still vote for him.” True or not, that is just one person. A journalist’s report should not be based on the hearsay of one person alone. Matsliah is not an ethical journalist, but the fact that she could bandy such mudslinging as serious opinion for discussion was indicative that anything about Netanyahu goes.

Interestingly, it was only in the previous week that former MK Zehava Gal-On of Meretz was in the KAN studio being interviewed by Erel Segal and Liebskind, who identify as rightists. Liebskind compared Israel and its relationship with the Arab Palestinians as one of Israel being raped. Gal-On took umbrage, voices were raised and she eventually ended the conversation and stormed out. She told Liebskind that such sexist imagery was off limits. Perhaps Matsliah missed that exchange? Or, did she find it amusing enough to use herself?

The 2016 Pulitzer Prize winner journalist Wesley Lowery, who we already have quoted in a previous column, asserts that there is a need “to fundamentally reset the norms of our field… We need to rebuild our industry as one that operates from a place of moral clarity.” The problem arises, however, when that “clarity” is solely set by the journalists and it is their personal opinions that are becoming the news. In this sense, there is a parallelism between the journalists and the Supreme Court justices.

In Richard M. Perloff’s new study, The Dynamics of News: Journalism in the 21st-Century Media Milieu, he views journalism as in an ideological alignment between the social systems and institutions of news and government rather than a sociological one. For him that means that news authority is a form of hegemony and, he asserts, “news is a systematic handmaiden of the status quo, propping up the forces-that-be in subtle, not always coercive, ways”. Since “society needs news, an institution that is indispensable for democracy”, Perloff highlights how news is shaped by indoctrination that is known and unknown to journalists.

Here in Israel, that theory works only one-way: from the leftist media against the political and popular right wing of society. The left wing is always “right;” the right wing primitive, abrasive and wrong. By some miracle though this dictation has not convinced Israel’s majority.


The authors are members of Israel’s Media Watch.


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Israel, Hamas Agree to Restore Calm Along Gaza Border

Israel, Hamas Agree to Restore Calm Along Gaza Border

Reuters and Algemeiner Staff


Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike in the Gaza Strip, Aug. 28, 2020. Photo: Reuters / Mohammed Shana.

Israel and Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip agreed to end a weeks-long escalation of unrest along the border, it was announced on Monday.

Under the deal, brokered by a Qatari envoy, Hamas would end the launching of incendiary balloons, and Israel would end air strikes, said a Palestinian official close to the mediation.

COGAT, Israel’s liaison agency to the Palestinian territories, confirmed that after security consultations led by Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Gaza’s main goods crossing would reopen and fishermen would be allowed back to work, up to 15 nautical miles.

A COGAT statement said the decisions were “subject to the continuation of the calm and the security stability” but warned that if Hamas failed to deliver, Israel would “act accordingly.”

Hamas said the understanding would ease the way for implementation of projects “that will serve the people of Gaza, and alleviate the suffering amid the coronavirus wave.”

Palestinians and humanitarian groups have urged an easing of the Israeli-led blockade on Gaza, fearing even more hardship after the first outbreak of COVID-19 there last week.


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Survivors ask Mark Zuckerberg to remove Holocaust deniers from Facebook

Survivors ask Mark Zuckerberg to remove Holocaust deniers from Facebook

GIDEON TAYLOR


In 2018, Holocaust survivors posted an open letter to Mark Zuckerberg explaining the deep hurt that Holocaust denial brings to those who suffered the worst of humanity and survived.

PRESIDENT REUVEN Rivlin listens as Claims Conference president Gideon Taylor speaks. / (photo credit: HADAS PARUSH/FLASH90)

The years-long conversation between human rights organizations and Facebook about removing hate speech from its platform is reaching another fever pitch. As the dialogue catches fire yet again, Holocaust survivors around the world are asking Mark Zuckerberg to take one, seemingly simple action: Remove Holocaust deniers from Facebook.

A few weeks ago, an independent audit focused on the state of civil rights at Facebook painted a sad picture. “Unfortunately, in our view Facebook’s approach to civil rights remains too reactive and piecemeal,” it said. “Many in the civil rights community have become disheartened, frustrated and angry after years of engagement where they implored the company to do more to advance equality and fight discrimination, while also safeguarding free expression.”

In 2018, Holocaust survivors posted an open letter to Mark Zuckerberg explaining the deep hurt that Holocaust denial brings to those who suffered the worst of humanity and survived. As a result of the video posted on the Claims Conference Facebook page, a meeting was held at Facebook, and lip service was paid. Unfortunately, no action was taken and Holocaust deniers continue to enjoy uninterrupted platforms on which to spread their hateful rhetoric.

Holocaust denial is not ignorance or a lack of education – it is an intentional, woeful act of hatred. The attempted extermination of Jews from Europe is one of the most researched and well-documented historical atrocities of our collective human history, supported by first-hand testimonies from Jews, historians and the Nazis themselves. Holocaust denial is antisemitic and only serves to generate more hatred.

More importantly, antisemitism is hate speech, intended to incite violence and inflict emotional distress, and therefore, is a violation of Facebook’s own community standards and poorly enforced hate-speech policies.

In November 2019, Facebook announced that it would remove significantly more “hate speech” from the platform than ever before, saying that 80% of the hate speech being detected was identified through a new application of artificial intelligence rather than by individuals. The press announcement boasted that in the third quarter of 2019, these measures helped remove over seven million instances of hate speech, a 59% increase from the previous quarter.

Seven million instances of hate speech being removed seems like a big number, until you consider that it is a tiny fraction of the 30 million posts per day Facebook’s 2.5 billion monthly users share. By all accounts, the “updated algorithm” and advanced application of artificial intelligence has removed just a small fraction of hate speech on the platform.

In Europe, where Holocaust denial is illegal, Facebook has no problem removing the hateful rhetoric from its platform. In the US, Holocaust deniers are able to post hateful speech calling into question the well documented events of World War II – every post erasing further the memory of the six million individuals – 1.5 million of them children – who were murdered during the Holocaust for the crime of being born Jewish.

This is not just a Holocaust-survivor issue or even a Jewish issue.

Facebook has long provided a platform for fringe groups to post hate against people of various races and economic standing, gender identifications and sexual orientations. Groups like the Anti-Defamation League, Color of Change, the NAACP, and the Claims Conference have been pleading with Zuckerberg and his team to aggressively address this issue and remove disinformation and hate speech for years.
This cannot stand.

We have asked Zuckerberg to meet with Holocaust survivors to hear directly from them how painful it is that one of the world’s leading companies hosts Holocaust deniers.

This week, we started sharing short videos from Holocaust survivors – one every day – addressed to Mark Zuckerberg, demanding that he remove Holocaust deniers from Facebook. We will continue to do this until we see action.

You can help us. Please follow our hashtag #NoDenyingIt, like and share these posts with your network, and help these voices be heard. Let’s show Facebook that we will never forget.


The writer is president of the Claims Conference.


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